Responsibility for the Crisis Worsening Lies with Armenia
Military Attacks Led by Azerbaijan
[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Azerbaijan and Armenia have broken the third ceasefire agreement and resumed hostilities. This comes just one day after agreeing to a ceasefire through U.S. mediation. How did the armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which has resulted in thousands of casualties, occur?
On the 27th (local time), The New York Times (NYT) published an article analyzing how the armed conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of the South Caucasus began. According to the NYT, while the direct military attack was led by Azerbaijan, much of the cause of the war was due to Armenia's own actions.
Azerbaijan and Armenia had consciously avoided the Nagorno-Karabakh issue until now, fearing that mishandling the matter could lead to armed conflict. However, earlier this year, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan escalated the issue by insisting that Nagorno-Karabakh is clearly Armenian territory. The Nagorno-Karabakh government established by Armenia announced its parliament in Shusha, which further angered Azerbaijan. According to the NYT, Shusha is considered a kind of cultural capital by Azerbaijanis, and moving the parliament there was inevitably seen as a provocation by Azerbaijanis.
In fact, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has a complex history. When Azerbaijan and Armenia gained independence from the former Soviet Union, the Nagorno-Karabakh area was incorporated into Azerbaijan despite having a majority Armenian population. The Christian Armenians and Muslim Azerbaijanis became antagonistic, and eventually, with Armenia's help, the Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh waged war. After three years of conflict, Armenia effectively won and took control of the region. However, under international law, the area is still classified as Azerbaijani territory.
The Azerbaijani side pointed out, "Negotiations ended when Prime Minister Pashinyan claimed Nagorno-Karabakh as Armenian territory." According to current reports, Azerbaijani forces have occupied about 13% of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The NYT cited independent experts who viewed Azerbaijan as the main instigator of the recent armed conflict, stating that the attack was premeditated. However, they also argued that Prime Minister Pashinyan's remarks crossed a line. Thomas de Waal, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe, said, "Since Armenia wanted to maintain the status quo, it is logical to see Azerbaijan as the initiator of this armed conflict," but added, "Armenia also showed provocative actions and played a certain role in this situation."
Previously, Azerbaijan was effectively defeated in the 1990s war with Armenia, but since then, its military power has significantly strengthened. This is due to using national wealth earned from natural gas and oil to purchase weapons and sending officers to Turkey and other countries for training.
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