Chinese Media May Not Announce Growth Target at 5th Plenary Session of 19th CPC Central Committee

Major Financial Institutions Forecast China's Economic Growth Target at 5-6% for 2021-2025
Likely to Reveal Only Directional Outline Instead of Figures During the Two Sessions

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] As China opened the '19th Central Committee of the Communist Party 5th Plenary Session (5th Plenum)' on the 26th, it is reported that the 14th Five-Year Plan (14·5 Plan) will be discussed, but there is a prospect that no specific economic growth targets will be presented.

China's state-run Global Times reported on the 27th that central committee members "may not present numerical targets" in the 14·5 Plan and the 2035 Plan.

Chinese think tanks and global financial institutions generally estimate China's potential economic growth rate during the 14·5 Plan period to be between 5% and 6%.

Zhu Baoliang, director of the China National Information Center, said that an economic growth target of 5.5% for China from 2021 to 2025 is appropriate.

The Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences predicted that China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate during the same period would reach 5% to 6%, while the National Development Institute of Peking University forecasted a potential growth rate of 6% and an annual economic growth rate of around 5.5%, respectively.

Additionally, Morgan Stanley recently projected in a report that China will set its economic growth target at around 5% for 2021 to 2025.

Contrary to these predictions, there is also a possibility that the Chinese leadership will not specify a target. Experts suggest that since China has already entered a high-growth phase and faces significant uncertainties, it is more likely to present only directional guidance rather than specific numbers.

The Chinese government has not presented an economic target for this year since the Two Sessions (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) held in May.

Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, said, "This meeting to draft the 14th Five-Year Plan is held at an optimal time. China and the world are facing great uncertainties."

Deputy Director Xu explained, "The dual circulation strategy aims to maximize the use of the huge domestic market amid increasing external risks. However, this does not mean that China will abandon overseas markets." He added that China will continue to expand its opening to the outside world.

Tian Yun of the Beijing Economic Operation Association said that considering the increasingly severe U.S. blockade of Chinese technology companies, many policies supporting research and development in core technologies are expected to emerge.