Explosive Early Voting Surge in US Presidential Election... 'What Is the Impact on Election Results?'

Early Voting in Some Areas Surpasses Total Votes from Last Presidential Election
High Turnout Expected to Favor Candidate Biden
Concerns Persist Over Continued Confusion Until Final Election Results Are Tallied

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] With the unprecedented early voting enthusiasm continuing ahead of the U.S. presidential election scheduled for the 3rd of next month, attention is focused on how it will affect the election results. While there is speculation that a high early voting rate will lead to a high voter turnout, concerns remain that post-election confusion may arise due to controversies over mail-in voting.

According to the 'US Election Project,' a site providing U.S. election-related statistics, as of the 26th (local time), early votes have surpassed 64.71 million. This significantly exceeds the number of early voters in the presidential election four years ago. Amid the COVID-19 crisis, it is expected that the early voting rate will reach an all-time high. However, in some areas, early voting has already exceeded the total votes (early voting + votes on election day) from the last presidential election.

For example, in Texas, 7.4 million people have already voted early, surpassing 80% of the voter turnout in the last presidential election. In particular, some regions in Texas have recorded more votes than in the previous election.

American citizens lined up for early in-person voting [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

The primary reason for the high early voting rate is that voters preferred mail-in voting or early in-person voting due to concerns about COVID-19. However, equally influential is the active encouragement of voting by civic groups. Especially since this year's U.S. presidential election is expected to be closely contested, both the Republican and Democratic parties are actively urging their supporters to vote.

In fact, not only the Democratic Party but also the Republican Party is actively encouraging early voting. However, in the case of the Republican Party, there is some message confusion as the presidential candidate, U.S. President Donald Trump, has repeatedly raised suspicions about mail-in voting. For this reason and others, it is analyzed that 49.4% of Democratic supporters and 40.8% of Republican supporters have participated in early voting.

Amid the early voting enthusiasm, there is also speculation that this year's voter turnout will be higher than usual. It is also analyzed that 14 million voters who did not vote in the last presidential election will participate this time. Such a high turnout is expected to work in favor of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. This could lead to a consolidation of the support base reminiscent of when former President Barack Obama won the election. In fact, the voter turnout when Obama won the 2008 presidential election was 57.1%. In contrast, the turnout when President Trump was elected was 55.5%.

Concerns are also emerging as early voting surges. In the special circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic, election officials inevitably face work overload. Moreover, as early voting increases, it is analyzed that it will take longer to finalize the election results. Particularly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are decisive states in this election, early votes are counted on election day, so it may take several days to tally the final election results. If the election results are close, it could take several days to confirm the winner of the presidential election.