[The Editors' Verdict] US Presidential Election = COVID Election

Roundtable on Japanese Government's Export Regulations, Professor Jeong In-kyo, Inha University. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

With the U.S. presidential election scheduled for the 3rd of next month, Democratic candidate Joe Biden currently appears to have an advantage, leading by about 8 percentage points in the polls. However, due to the winner-takes-all system in which the highest vote-getter in each state takes all the electoral votes, an unexpected upset like in 2016 could result in President Donald Trump being re-elected. Information about the 'shy conservatives,' who tend not to reveal their voting preferences, remains unclear, leaving the Biden camp unable to feel secure.

For the first time this year, early in-person voting was conducted as a measure against the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Due to varying postal voting requirements by state and numerous verification steps, it is expected that all votes will be counted only about a month after the election. Trump has repeatedly mentioned that he would not hesitate to file lawsuits if problems with postal voting arise, which could delay the determination of the winner.

According to U.S. media reports, about two-thirds of the total 538 presidential electoral votes allocated by state are essentially already decided, while the remaining one-third will determine the election outcome. Some election analysis organizations estimate Biden at 232 votes and Trump at 125. Biden is 38 votes short of the 270 needed to enter the White House.

States like Texas, Nebraska, and Utah have traditionally shown conservative and religious tendencies, making them Republican strongholds (safe states), while New York, California, and Vermont have been classified as safe states for the Democrats due to their liberal leanings. Six states?Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin?have played the role of swing states that decide the election outcome. This year, Georgia, Texas, and Ohio are also classified as battleground states. In other words, there are still a significant number of voters who are independent of party affiliation and have yet to decide their vote.

Trump needs to sweep the 110 electoral votes from the six swing states and win a few more states like Georgia and Ohio, which are currently closely contested, to cause an upset in the election. If current forecasts, which suggest he has secured many fixed votes, are correct, the Biden camp is focusing its campaign efforts on Pennsylvania and Georgia, where victory would secure the presidency. Trump's move of changing his voting address from New York to his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida is also part of his swing state election strategy.

In the final stretch of the election, Trump appears to have the advantage in rallying voter support. He traveled extensively in one day across four states?from swing state Florida to Wisconsin?holding a rally for a total of three and a half hours. In contrast, Biden held a drive-in rally using a vehicle in Pennsylvania, his home state and a swing state.

Texas and Pennsylvania, which could suffer the most from Biden's clean energy policies, remain uncertain. In the 2016 election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, who was confident of victory, narrowly lost Pennsylvania to Trump. Moreover, Biden's pledge to eliminate $40 billion in subsidies for fossil fuel production adds to the uncertainty.

This year's election can rightly be called a COVID election. President Trump's COVID diagnosis led to the cancellation of the second debate, and although the third debate, which was difficult to arrange, proceeded in a more orderly manner than the first, policy discussions beyond COVID-related arguments were limited. Some analyses even suggest that Fox News anchor Chris Wallace, the moderator, was the winner rather than the candidates.

The coronavirus quietly spread during the relaxed summer vacation period, worsening into a second pandemic. As daily new case records are being broken, American voters are curious about whether they will side with Trump's claims of "economic stimulus and a V-shaped recovery" or Biden's counterarguments about "a winter surge in COVID and economic downturn." COVID is determining the U.S. presidency.

Jung In-gyo, Professor, Department of International Trade, Inha University