[Politics, That Day...] The Hidden Puzzle of Presidential Election Polls: 'Shy Conservative'

Interest Surges After 2016 US Presidential Election Poll Reversal... Hong Jun-pyo's Poll at 7% One Month Before Election vs. Actual Vote Share of 24%

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Judging solely by the poll numbers, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is virtually decided. The election is less than a month away, and Democratic candidate Biden is comfortably ahead of Republican candidate Trump.

However, there is a variable that unsettles political experts. It is the presence of the ‘Shy Conservative (Shy Trump)’ who emerged as the biggest wildcard in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The Shy Conservative is like a ‘hidden puzzle’ that polls fail to capture.

Four years ago, during the U.S. presidential election, most pollsters and political experts predicted Trump’s defeat based on polling data. The 2016 election ended with Trump’s victory, causing political and polling experts to face humiliation.

The Shy Conservative is also a subject of interest in Korean politics. The first test to resolve this question was the May 2017 presidential election. The reason to focus on the May 2017 election is that the political scandal involving state affairs manipulation heavily influenced the election’s flow.

On the 15th, the day of the 21st National Assembly election, voters are casting their ballots at a polling station set up at Hyehwa Art Center in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

An environment where it is difficult to openly express support for a particular party or candidate is the optimal condition for the Shy Conservative to expand its influence.

In fact, in polls at the time, Hong Joon-pyo, the candidate from the Liberty Korea Party, struggled. Although he was the presidential candidate representing the conservative forces, his poll support was at a dismal level.

A survey conducted by Korea Gallup from April 4 to 6, 2017, targeting 1,005 adults aged 19 and older, showed that Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party had 38%, Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party had 35%, and Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party had 7%. This was about a month before the May 9 election.

At the time, the general consensus was that Hong Joon-pyo’s 7% support in polls would differ significantly from the actual election results. Analysts suggested that respondents who found it difficult to choose the Liberty Korea Party candidate in polls instead chose Ahn Cheol-soo, creating an optical illusion.

There was a view that Hong Joon-pyo’s support would inevitably rise over time. A Korea Gallup poll conducted from May 1 to 2, 2017, with 1,015 adults aged 19 and older, showed Hong’s support at 16%. Moon Jae-in’s support remained similar at 38%, while Ahn Cheol-soo’s dropped 15 percentage points from 35% to 20%.

For detailed information on Korea Gallup’s polls, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Hong Joon-pyo’s support showed a noticeable upward trend compared to a month earlier. So, did the poll conducted one week before the election reflect the actual voting intentions? Comparing Korea Gallup’s poll one week before the election with the actual vote shares of major candidates helps clarify this question.

Ahn Cheol-soo’s support in the Korea Gallup poll was 20%, while his actual vote share was 21.4%. This indicates little difference between the poll and the actual results. At that time, Yoo Seung-min of the Bareun Party had 6% in polls and 6.8% in actual votes. Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party had 8% in polls and 6.2% in actual votes.

The winner, Moon Jae-in, recorded 38% in polls and 41.1% in actual votes, showing an increase of over 3 percentage points.

The candidate with the largest gap between the poll one week before the election and the actual vote share was Hong Joon-pyo. He had 16% in polls but received 24% of the actual votes. Considering he had only 7% support a month before, this was a steep rise.

The fact that his actual vote share was significantly higher than both the poll one month and one week before the election indicates the presence of the Shy Conservative in the May 2017 presidential election. The Shy Conservative, who remains unreflected in polls, is expected to be a subject of interest in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for March 2022.