Busan Mayor By-election: Seo Byeong-su Leads All Candidates in Headquarters Poll

Asia Economy, Gyeongnam Daily, and Sisa Gyeongnam Joint Survey by 'PNR Research'
Overall Ranking: Seo Byung-su, Lee Eon-ju, Kim Young-choon, Oh Gyu-seok, Kim Hae-young, Byun Sung-wan, Lee Jin-bok
Opposition Ranking: Seo Byung-su, Lee Eon-ju, Jang Je

The results of the 2021 Busan mayoral by-election overall candidate support survey jointly conducted by three media outlets: Asia Economy Yeongnam Headquarters, Gyeongnam Daily, and Sisa Gyeongnam. [Image source=PNR-(Joo) People Networks Research]

[Asia Economy Yeongnam Reporting Headquarters Reporter Kim Yong-woo] In the opinion poll for the Busan mayoral by-election to be held next year, Assemblyman Seo Byung-soo of the People Power Party came out on top with the highest overall candidate support of 19.6% combining both ruling and opposition parties.

Next were former Assemblyman Lee Eon-ju (People Power Party) with 15.3%, former Assemblyman Kim Young-choon (Democratic Party of Korea) with 13.1%, Busan Gijang County Governor Oh Kyu-seok with 9.4%, former Assemblyman Kim Hae-young (Democratic Party of Korea) with 5.8%, Acting Mayor of Busan Byun Sung-wan with 5.2%, and former Assemblyman Lee Jin-bok (People Power Party) with 4.5%, respectively.

This result came from a recent survey jointly commissioned by Asia Economy Yeongnam Headquarters, Gyeongnam Daily, and Sisa Gyeongnam to the professional polling agency PNR-People Networks Research Co., Ltd. The survey was conducted via automated telephone response, with 68% of responses coming from mobile phones.

Among ruling party candidates, Kim Young-choon led with 20.3% support, followed by Kim Hae-young at 11.1%, Byun Sung-wan at 7.3%, and Park Jae-ho at 5.4%.

Results of the 2021 Busan mayoral by-election ruling party candidate support survey jointly conducted by three media outlets: Asia Economy Yeongnam Headquarters, Gyeongnam Daily, and Sisa Gyeongnam. [Image source=PNR-(Joo) People Networks Research]

However, the response indicating no preferred ruling party candidate was also high at 38.2%, suggesting that the disgraceful resignation of former Mayor Oh Keo-don still has a considerable impact. Furthermore, 17.7% responded with "Don't know," not revealing their support base, indicating it is too early to gauge cohesion for ruling party candidates.

Among opposition candidates, Seo Byung-soo led with 19.5%, showing a similar support rate to the overall candidate support. Next were Lee Eon-ju at 15.5%, Jang Je-won at 9.2%, Park Min-sik at 5.8%, Lee Jin-bok at 5.2%, and Yoo Jae-joong at 4.2%.

It is also noteworthy that Oh Kyu-seok, Busan Gijang County Governor, who is not classified as either ruling or opposition, ranked fourth overall among all candidates.

Governor Oh entered the top four with 9.4% support, following nationally recognized opposition candidates Seo Byung-soo and Lee Eon-ju, and ruling party candidate Kim Young-choon.

Acting Mayor Byun Sung-wan, currently performing the duties of Busan mayor, is also within the top six. Although he has no overt political affiliation, if the ruling party does not field a candidate, the direction of Acting Mayor Byun and Governor Oh could become significant variables in the election.

Results of the 2021 Busan mayoral by-election opposition candidate support survey jointly conducted by three media outlets: Asia Economy Yeongnam Headquarters, Gyeongnam Daily, and Sisa Gyeongnam. [Image source=PNR-(People Networks Research Co., Ltd.)]

In a hypothetical one-on-one contest between the ruling party’s top candidate and the opposition’s top candidate, Seo Byung-soo (37.1%) led Kim Young-choon (27.6%) by nearly 10%.

In a contest between the ruling party’s top candidate and the opposition’s second candidate, Kim Young-choon (32.0%) narrowly led Lee Eon-ju (30.6%).

In a hypothetical contest between the second candidates of the ruling and opposition parties, Lee Eon-ju (31.8%) significantly outpaced Kim Hae-young (22.7%).

A virtual head-to-head contest between the top supporters of the ruling and opposition parties in the 2021 Busan mayoral by-election, jointly conducted by three media outlets: Asia Economy Yeongnam Headquarters, Gyeongnam Daily, and Sisa Gyeongnam. [Image source=PNR-(Joo) People Networks Research]

Considering public opinion that the ruling party should not field candidates in the Seoul and Busan mayoral elections due to unforeseen incidents and disgraceful resignations, a survey asking about the Democratic Party candidate’s run for Busan mayor showed that 49.5% opposed fielding a candidate, higher than the 36.1% who supported it, indicating persistent negative sentiment toward ruling party candidates running.

In party support, the People Power Party led with 44.3%, followed by the Democratic Party of Korea at 31.2%, Justice Party at 4.5%, People Party at 3.1%, and Open Democratic Party at 1.8%.

Regarding party candidate support, People Power Party candidates had 43.8%, Democratic Party candidates 29.6%, and independents 7.7%.

As for the next important tasks for Busan city administration, 58.6% responded with job creation and economic innovation, showing that citizens’ expectations for the mayor focus on economic revitalization. Next were resolving the Gadeok New Airport issue at 20.1%, and citizen safety and welfare expansion at 10.2%.

This opinion poll was conducted via automated telephone response from 4:00 PM to 9:50 PM on September 28, targeting 1,022 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Busan. (Based on the August 2020 Ministry of the Interior and Safety resident registration population, weighted by region, gender, and age - rim weighting)

Among these, 68% of responses were from mobile phones (24,000 virtual numbers provided by telecom companies - SKT 12,000, KT 7,200, LGT 4,800), and 32% from landlines (200 main numbers, 0001~9999 RDD randomly generated and extracted - landline 120,000).

The sampling error is ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level, and the response rate is 3.5%. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.