[Politics, That Day...] Last Year's Chuseok 'Presidential Preliminary Exam', Which Politician Smiled?

Turning Point of Public Sentiment Chuseok, Politicians' Nerve-Wracking Time... Last Year Around Chuseok, Hwang Kyo-an and Ahn Cheol-soo 'Benefited'

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note
‘Politics, On That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, or figures that deserve attention.

Citizens are shopping at Mangwon Market in Mapo-gu, Seoul, six days before Chuseok, the biggest traditional holiday of the Korean people. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

“Shouldn't Politician A stop running for president now?” “Party B says the trend is already decided...” The Chuseok holiday is a time for evaluating politicians. Political talk is an inevitable topic among relatives gathered from various regions.

There is a good reason why the political circles in Yeouido pay close attention to the holiday break, especially the ‘Chuseok living room public sentiment.’ Around the Chuseok holiday, some politicians gain momentum while others experience a decline.

For presidential candidates, the Chuseok holiday is no different from a ‘preliminary exam.’ Although there is no guarantee that Chuseok public sentiment will continue until the presidential election, it can succeed in gaining an early advantage. Around last year's Chuseok holiday (September 13), which was the mid-term of President Moon Jae-in's term, which presidential candidate smiled?

An interesting point is that the results recorded were very different from the political situation in October 2020.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Gallup Korea from September 3 to 5, 2019, targeting 1,002 people nationwide aged 19 and older on the ‘Preferred Next Political Leader,’ the results were Lee Nak-yeon 21%, Hwang Kyo-ahn 14%, Lee Jae-myung 8%, Cho Kuk 6%, Park Won-soon 5%, Sim Sang-jung 5%, Yoo Seung-min 5%, Ahn Cheol-soo 4%, Hong Joon-pyo 4%, Oh Se-hoon 3%, and others.

Lee Nak-yeon, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, was dominating at the time, with former Liberty Korea Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn chasing him. Following them were Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, Justice Party leader Sim Sang-jung, former Future United Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo, former Liberty Korea Party leader Hong Joon-pyo, and former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon.

The October poll by Gallup Korea, conducted after the Chuseok holiday, showed different results. Gallup Korea conducted a ‘Preferred Next Political Leader’ poll from October 1 to 2, 2009, targeting 1,004 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide. Lee Nak-yeon’s support rose by 1 percentage point from 21% to 22%, maintaining his dominant position.

Although Lee Nak-yeon took first place, the politician who gained momentum based on Chuseok public sentiment was someone else. Former leader Hwang Kyo-ahn recorded 17%, up 3 percentage points from the September poll, chasing Lee Nak-yeon.

Former leader Ahn Cheol-soo also rose by 3 percentage points from 4% in September to 7% in October. This means that during last year’s Chuseok holiday, politicians Hwang Kyo-ahn and Ahn Cheol-soo were the two beneficiaries.

Governor Lee Jae-myung dropped by 1 percentage point from 8% in September to 7% in October, while Justice Party leader Sim Sang-jung rose by 1 percentage point from 5% to 6%. Former Minister Cho Kuk fell by 1 percentage point to 5%, and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min also dropped by 1 percentage point to 4%. Former leader Hong Joon-pyo remained at 4% in both September and October.

What is noteworthy is that the support rates for presidential candidates around last year’s Chuseok holiday differ significantly from those of now, one year later.

According to Gallup Korea’s ‘Preferred Next Political Leader’ poll conducted from September 8 to 10 this year, targeting 1,002 people nationwide aged 18 and older, the landscape has transformed into a two-horse race between Governor Lee Jae-myung and Leader Lee Nak-yeon. Governor Lee Jae-myung recorded 22%, and Leader Lee Nak-yeon 21%. Compared to a year ago, Leader Lee Nak-yeon remains strong while Governor Lee Jae-myung has surged dramatically.

On the 14th, one day before the 21st National Assembly election, Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, is appealing for support with a performance after concluding the National Report press conference of hope and unity in front of Sejong Center for the Performing Arts in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

On the other hand, the conservative opposition presidential candidate group has rapidly shrunk. Former leader Hwang Kyo-ahn has dropped out of the leading group, and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, mentioned as a conservative opposition presidential candidate, recorded 3%, former leader Hong Joon-pyo 3%, and Leader Ahn Cheol-soo 3%, following the ‘Lee Jae-myung?Lee Nak-yeon’ two-horse race.

For detailed information on this year’s and last year’s Gallup Korea polls, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Considering that former leaders Hwang Kyo-ahn and Ahn Cheol-soo gained momentum around last year’s Chuseok holiday, there is a possibility that certain politicians may rise again during this year’s Chuseok holiday.

Politics fluctuates according to the flow of public sentiment. Just as there is a big difference between the polls from a year ago and now, it is hard to predict what changes will occur until the presidential election in one year and six months. This means that the low support rates for conservative presidential candidates, as seen in the September Gallup Korea poll this year, are unlikely to continue.

Therefore, a figure who catches voters’ eyes must emerge at a timely moment. The political situation after this Chuseok holiday could be an opportunity for those dreaming of the 2022 presidential election.