[The Editors' Verdict] The Dangerous CVIP Initiative

Young-gi Cho, Special Professor at the Graduate School of Political Science, Kookmin University · Chairman of the Advanced Unification Research Association, Korea Peninsula Advancement Foundation

There is a Western proverb that says, "The road to hell is paved with good intentions." This is a warning against politicians who deceive the public with all kinds of flowery rhetoric. This proverb is not limited to the West but also applies to Korea. Especially when terms wrapped in good intentions have a fatal impact on national security, one must be even more cautious in words and actions. Terms cloaked in good intentions can become the root cause of national ruin.

On the 7th, at the Korea Peninsula International Peace Forum (KGFP), Minister of Unification Lee In-young raised the concept of "Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Peace (CVIP)." This is in the same vein. The CVIP mentioned by Minister Lee seems to borrow from the U.S. official stance on North Korean denuclearization, "Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Dismantlement (CVID)." The deliberate shift from CVID to CVIP is criticized for shifting the focus from North Korea's dismantlement to peace, thereby ignoring the dangers of North Korean nuclear weapons. In response to such criticism, the Ministry of Unification explained that the statement was intended to emphasize the necessity of establishing a firm and irreversible peaceful state for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue and developing inter-Korean relations, highlighting peace. This attitude of the Ministry of Unification seems to deliberately ignore the reality of the North Korean nuclear threat and appears to be trying to open the door to economic support, leaving a bitter aftertaste.

All citizens love peace and dislike war. The key here is not words but whether there is the capability to maintain peace. Especially, peace on the Korean Peninsula is practically impossible while North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. The CVIP proposed by the Minister of Unification, ignoring this reality, is a wrong start. In fact, our security authorities have deliberately avoided or shunned the North Korean nuclear threat. The Defense White Paper annually compares only conventional military forces and announces that South Korea's military strength is superior. However, comparing the military strength of South and North Korea without considering North Korea's nuclear strategy, which is effectively a nuclear-armed state, is meaningless. Comparing military strength excluding absolute weapons like nuclear arms has decisive limitations. Some studies show that including nuclear weapons, North Korea's military power index is twice that of South Korea. Failing to properly reveal the reality of the North Korean nuclear threat and misleading the public by emphasizing peace is merely a continuation of past dishonesty and irresponsibility.

In fact, we have consistently exhibited a history of dishonesty and irresponsibility regarding North Korean nuclear weapons. We willingly acted as parrots for Kim Il-sung's statement that "there is neither the will nor the capability to develop nuclear weapons," defended North Korea's position by saying "the nuclear weapons are for self-defense" immediately after North Korea's first nuclear test, ignored the reality of the threat by saying "would the same people really attack each other with nuclear weapons?" as nuclear tests continued, and manipulated the public with a forced framework of war and peace. In this regard, we all contributed to North Korea becoming a de facto nuclear-armed state, and now is a time for sincere repentance. The starting point of repentance must be the recognition that "peace with nuclear weapons is an illusion," acknowledging the failure of existing solutions to the North Korean nuclear problem, and laying the foundation for seeking new approaches. Especially, it should be noted that North Korea's concept of peace means "not simply the absence of war but the completion of communism and the absence of class struggle." Considering this North Korean view of peace, North Korea's nuclear weapons faithfully (?) serve as the sword of Juche to complete communism.

The past 40 years of North Korean nuclear dialogue have proven that the approach of dialogue and cooperation cannot resolve the nuclear issue. This means that the existing approach should be abandoned and a new approach adopted. The new approach is to create an environment where North Korea has no choice but to give up its nuclear weapons and force it to do so. Currently, North Korea seems to be undergoing a second "Arduous March" due to UN economic sanctions, the closure of the North Korea-China border caused by COVID-19, and floods. This is an absolute weapon and a golden opportunity for the international community to force North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons. Therefore, we must not make the mistake of losing the opportunity of CVID by rushing into premature CVIP dialogue. Only then can true peace be established on the Korean Peninsula.

Jo Young-ki, Special Professor at the Graduate School of Political Science, Kookmin University & Chairman of the Advanced Unification Research Group, Korea Peninsula Advancement Foundation