[Comprehensive] Don't Trust Korea Meteorological Administration, Norway Meteorological Administration? Experts Say "Forecast Errors Due to Weather Anomalies"

Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Kim Seul-gi] Amid ongoing damage caused by heavy rain nationwide, some netizens have been reported to use overseas weather forecast sites as the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) forecasts have frequently missed the mark.

Earlier, the KMA announced the '2020 Summer Outlook' in May, stating that this summer's precipitation would be similar to or less than the average (678.2~751.9mm), and the peak of the heatwave would be from late July to mid-August.

However, due to weather deviating from expectations, posts claiming that forecasts issued by foreign meteorological agencies are more accurate than those by the KMA have spread mainly on online communities.

On June 11, various posts sharing experiences appeared on social networking services (SNS) and internet communities, such as "The Norwegian Meteorological Institute is more accurate than the KMA," and "When going on trips, I often refer to overseas meteorological sites like those of Finland, the U.S., and the U.K."

One netizen shared, "I was planning to go camping over the weekend, but I couldn't trust the KMA's forecast, so I checked the Norwegian Meteorological Institute's weather forecast," recounting their experience.

These users who check domestic weather forecasts on overseas sites have been dubbed 'weather asylum seekers.' Among the overseas weather forecast sites highly rated for accuracy by these weather asylum seekers are the Norwegian and Finnish meteorological institutes, the U.S. 'AccuWeather,' and the U.K.'s 'BBC Weather.'

In fact, it has been confirmed that the number of people who do not trust the KMA's forecasts due to low accuracy has increased.

According to the 'Public Satisfaction Survey on Meteorological Services' released by the KMA in January this year, the satisfaction score for the KMA's neighborhood forecasts among the general public last year was 68 points, down 3.4 points from 71.4 points the previous year.

Netizens also expressed critical opinions such as "The weather forecasts have been inaccurate in recent years," and "I don't know why the KMA even exists."

Experts explained that the Norwegian Meteorological Institute is unaware of Korea's monsoon season, and forecast errors are due to abnormal weather phenomena.

On June 11, Kim Seung-bae, head of the Korea Meteorological Industry Association, explained in an interview with CBS Radio's 'Sisa Jaki Jung Kwan-yong imnida,' "The Norwegian Meteorological Institute provides 24-hour forecasts for Korea. However, the KMA divides the day into 3-hour segments for forecasts."

Kim said, "When the forecast is split into 3-hour intervals, people say, 'It was supposed to rain at 6 or 9 o'clock, but it rained at 10.' So those who have events at 6 or 9 just criticize the KMA. That's because our target area is narrow. We narrow down the location to every 5 km neighborhood. Does the Norwegian Meteorological Institute provide forecasts for each neighborhood like Songwol-dong in Jongno-gu, Korea? No, they don't," he pointed out.

He also explained, "(The cause of forecast errors) is abnormal weather phenomena. In summer, the North Pacific High pressure system usually covers Korea with summer air. But this year, it did not. No one knows about such irregularities," he said.