[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Will the 'Monster Missile Hyunmoo-4' Enter Mass Production Starting Next Year?

President Moon Jae-in Officially Confirms Success in Hyunmoo-4 Development
Ballistic Missile Development Race Between North and South Korea Expected to Accelerate

The live-fire test of Hyunmoo-2 over the East Sea

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] The 'Hyunmoo-4,' known as a tactical nuclear-level monster missile, is expected to enter mass production as early as next year. As the new ballistic missile is rapidly deployed, the ballistic missile competition between South and North Korea is also expected to accelerate amid the stalemate in inter-Korean and North Korea-US talks.

President Moon Jae-in also virtually confirmed the successful launch of the new ballistic missile during his visit to the Defense Science Research Institute in Daejeon on the 23rd. After inspecting advanced weapons, President Moon said, "Because this is a security matter, I cannot speak freely in front of cameras, but I congratulate the success of the ballistic missile equipped with one of the world's highest-level warhead weights."

Although he did not mention it specifically, it is believed he was referring to the 'Hyunmoo-4,' known as a tactical nuclear-level monster missile. The Hyunmoo-4 is estimated to have a range of 800 km and a warhead weight of 2 tons. In mid-March, the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) conducted the first test launch of the Hyunmoo-4 ballistic missile at the Anheung Test Site in Taean-gun, Chungnam Province, with Kim You-geun, the First Deputy Director of the National Security Office at the Blue House, participating, but the launch failed. However, after three months of testing and evaluation, development is reported to have entered its final stages.

The military expects that if the Hyunmoo-4 receives combat suitability certification within this year and enters mass production next year, it will possess power comparable to tactical nuclear weapons. A warhead weight of 500 kg is sufficient to destroy an airfield runway, but increasing the warhead weight to 2 tons gives it at least three times the penetration power compared to the GBU-57, the strongest bunker buster currently available. It can penetrate over 24 meters of reinforced concrete and 180 meters of ordinary ground, effectively giving it tactical nuclear-level power.

The development was made possible after the '2017 Revised Missile Guidelines,' which completely lifted South Korea's missile warhead weight restrictions, were adopted during the 2017 summit between President Moon and then-US President Donald Trump. The existing missile guidelines, which required reducing warhead weight as range increased?a 'trade-off' approach?were revised to allow ballistic missile development with a maximum range of 800 km and a warhead weight of up to 2 tons. The ADD soon began developing the new ballistic missile, Hyunmoo-4.

Guardian of the North: The Hyunmoo Series
Ballistic missiles Hyunmoo-2A, Hyunmoo-2B, Hyunmoo-2C
Cruise missile Hyunmoo-3 with a range of 1000 km

The Hyunmoo missiles currently possessed by the military mean 'Guardian of the North.' The Hyunmoo missile family includes ballistic missiles Hyunmoo-2A (range 300 km), Hyunmoo-2B (500 km), Hyunmoo-2C (800 km), and the cruise missile Hyunmoo-3 (1000 km). It is reported that the military developed and deployed the Hyunmoo-2B ballistic missile, capable of pull-up maneuvers during the descent phase similar to Russia's Iskander missile, in the early 2000s. Among the Hyunmoo series, the Hyunmoo-2 ballistic missiles use rocket propulsion, making them faster and more destructive than the jet engine-based Hyunmoo-3 cruise missile. However, cruise missiles have higher precision than ballistic missiles.

After the US and South Korea revised the missile guidelines and established the Hyunmoo-4 development plan, the Army also changed its operational concept. The Army has established a concept to completely destroy North Korea's nuclear and missile bases and long-range artillery positions early in the event of full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, using three types of ballistic missiles: tactical surface-to-surface missiles (KTSSM), Hyunmoo-2, and Hyunmoo-4. This is part of the offensive defense system 'Kill Chain' and the '5 Major Game Changers' that execute the massive retaliation operation (KMPR).

North Korea has also been steadily developing missiles. North Korean missiles are deployed in three belts. The military and defense research institutions have conveniently named the missile deployment lines currently in place as three belts. North Korea is known to have deployed medium- and short-range missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at 13 bases across three belts (zones) from near the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) in the front to rear areas.

The 1st belt is located 50 to 90 km north of the DMZ, where Scud brigades are stationed. With a range of 300 to 700 km, they can target the entire South Korean territory. Approximately 400 Scud missiles are deployed, with around 40 mobile launchers (TELs) estimated.

The 2nd belt is established 90 to 120 km north of the DMZ and is managed by the Nodong missile brigades. More than 300 Nodong missiles with a range of 1200 km are deployed, capable of striking US forces in Japan. The number of Nodong missile TELs is estimated to be around 30.

The 3rd belt is the rear area based on Cheolsan in North Pyongan Province, Geomdeok Mountain in South Hamgyong Province, and Junggang in Jagang Province. Located 175 km north of the DMZ, it is estimated to house 30 to 50 Musudan missiles. These can be launched while moving on about 30 TELs and can strike bases in Guam. Additionally, if the ICBM-class KN-08 is deployed in the 3rd belt area, it could threaten not only Hawaii but also the US mainland.