Trump's 'October Surprise' in Focus: "North Korea-US Summit Possible"

Yongbyon Nuclear Dismantlement - Prospects for a 'Small Deal' Exchange with Partial Sanctions Relief

U.S. President Donald Trump is giving a speech at a presidential campaign rally held at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma, on the 20th (local time). President Trump resumed his campaign rallies on this day after suspending them due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

As President Moon Jae-in has declared his intention to lead the North Korea-U.S. summit, the possibility of a third North Korea-U.S. summit being held before the U.S. presidential election in November is spreading within Washington political circles, regardless of its feasibility. It is anticipated that a 'October Surprise'?a last-minute event aimed at influencing the election?may occur. Specifically, some analyses suggest it could take the form of a small deal exchanging North Korea's 'Yongbyon nuclear dismantlement' card for a partial easing of sanctions by the U.S., based on the premise of 'snapback' (restoration of sanctions if commitments are not met).

John Bolton, former U.S. National Security Council (NSC) advisor, mentioned the possibility of a North Korea-U.S. summit during an online press conference hosted by the Foreign Press Association in New York on the 2nd (local time), referring to it as an "October Surprise."

Bolton argued, "If President Donald Trump feels he is in serious trouble, another summit with his friend Kim Jong-un (Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea) might appear as something that could turn the situation around."

The term "October Surprise" refers to a major last-minute event in U.S. presidential elections that is ambitiously prepared to influence voters' preferences and the election outcome.

At a seminar on the Korean Peninsula jointly hosted by the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Korea Foundation, the possibility of an "October Surprise" was also raised.

Victor Cha, CSIS Korea Chair, stated, "There is a possibility that President Trump might exchange the closure of Yongbyon for some easing of sanctions against North Korea."

Cha noted, "In Bolton's memoir, there is a scene that appears to be from an internal discussion where President Trump asks about the possibility of partially lifting North Korea sanctions. This could be the core of the October Surprise." He also cited the fact that Bolton, who was the only person opposing such an agreement with North Korea, is no longer in the White House.

Cha mentioned that Steven Biegun, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and Special Representative for North Korea, and Alison Hooker, Senior Director for Asia at the U.S. National Security Council (NSC), are expected to visit South Korea next week, adding, "Partial sanctions relief might be the last effort the U.S. can make before the election."

Some voices warn that the October Surprise could provoke North Korean provocations. CSIS Senior Fellow Sue Mi Terry assessed the likelihood of a North Korea-U.S. summit as low and analyzed, "The only option left for North Korea is to increase provocations to strengthen its influence after Trump's re-election or under a Democratic administration."

The South Korean government, which has initiated the North Korea-U.S. summit and the reactivation of the Korean Peninsula peace process, plans to maximize this momentum. On the 2nd, at a press conference held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Seoul, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said, "We plan to continue comprehensive diplomatic efforts to bring North Korea back to dialogue."

Regarding President Moon's statement that he will do his best to ensure the North Korea-U.S. summit takes place before the U.S. presidential election in November, Minister Kang said, "We are maintaining close communication at various levels, including the State Department and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs between South Korea and the U.S. This includes the visit of Lee Do-hoon, Director General for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs, to the U.S."