[Summary] North Korea Blows Up Kaesong Industrial Complex Liaison Office... What’s Next?

[Asia Economy Reporter Yang Nak-gyu] North Korea blew up the Kaesong Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office on the 16th.

According to military sources on the 16th, loud explosions and smoke were observed in the Kaesong Industrial Complex area in the afternoon, and currently, the liaison office building is no longer visible in the area.

Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director of the Workers' Party in charge of inter-Korean affairs, stated in a statement on the night of the 13th, "It seems the time has come to decisively break ties with the South Korean side," adding, "We will soon take the next step in action." She warned that first, "Soon, you will witness the miserable sight of the useless North-South Joint Liaison Office collapsing without a trace," signaling the demolition of the Kaesong Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office. Earlier, in a statement released on the 4th, Kim also condemned the distribution of leaflets by defectors, warning of the complete dismantling of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the termination of the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement, and the closure of the liaison office.

Military experts observe that since South Korea has concentrated firepower on the western front, North Korea is likely to redeploy multiple rocket launcher and tank units to the Kaesong Industrial Complex area. Before the construction of the Kaesong Industrial Complex in December 2003, North Korea had stationed the 6th Division, 64th Division, and 62nd Artillery Brigade of the 2nd Corps in the Kaesong and Panmun-eup Bongdong-ri areas. During the Korean War, the 6th Division, stationed north of Kaesong, was a mobile unit that advanced rapidly with tanks, occupying Kaesong and Ongjin areas and swiftly moving to Yeongdeungpo.

Until the construction of the complex, the 6th Division possessed the 'Chonma-ho' tank, North Korea's main battle tank with a speed of 54 km/h, and a battalion of armored vehicles capable of 60 km/h. The 62nd Artillery Brigade was armed with 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers targeting the Seoul metropolitan area. These long-range artillery pieces, with ranges of 54 to 65 km, pose a threat to the metropolitan area. However, prior to the construction of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, these units were reportedly relocated north of Songaksan Mountain and to the Kaepung County area.

Following the demolition of the Kaesong Joint Liaison Office, military authorities have strengthened surveillance and readiness against sudden military situations in the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) area. Frontline unit commanders have been ordered to remain at their posts and command their units.

Meanwhile, the Inter-Korean Joint Liaison Office opened in September 2018. South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un agreed in the Panmunjom Declaration on April 27, 2018, to establish the liaison office in the Kaesong area, allowing officials from both sides to reside there and conduct 24-hour continuous consultations, marking a new chapter in inter-Korean communication.

The liaison office building was prepared by renovating a four-story building previously used as the Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation Office within the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The South Korean office was on the 2nd floor, the North Korean office on the 4th floor, and a conference room on the 3rd floor. The inaugural director was from the South, with the deputy director from the North. Although the directors did not reside permanently at the Kaesong liaison office, they held weekly regular meetings and necessary consultations, serving as permanent negotiation representatives. The South Korean side had 30 personnel stationed at the liaison office, including 20 dispatched from related ministries such as the Ministry of Unification, Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism, and the Korea Forest Service, along with 10 facility maintenance staff. However, as North Korea-US talks stalled, the liaison office operations were disrupted, and with the outbreak of COVID-19 in January this year, South Korean personnel withdrew, maintaining only communication channels until recently.