[Reading Science] Blackout, Will National Functions Collapse in 3 Days?

Satellite images of the American continent clearly showing before and after the blackout. The New York area in the United States appears to have completely gone dark due to the blackout (right side of the photo).
[Photo by National Disaster Safety Research Institute website]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Jong-hwa] Modern society is called a "hyper-connected society." A hyper-connected society means a society where people, processes, data, and things are interconnected through networks. The most fundamental social infrastructure to realize such a hyper-connected society is electricity and the power grid.

According to the 2017 Energy Census conducted by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, electricity accounts for as much as 41.1% of the energy consumed domestically. Recently, this proportion has been increasing. Core national infrastructure that forms the foundation of society, including the production of electricity and gas, as well as communication, railroads, and hospitals, mostly use electricity as their energy source.

In other words, a hyper-connected society is a society based on the premise that electricity is supplied indefinitely. But what if a "blackout" occurs, a "blackout" event where electricity is cut off all at once over a wide area such as a city or country?

It is said that the functions of the country would be completely paralyzed in just three days, not only in cities but nationwide. According to the "Scenario for Wide-area Blackout Occurrence" predicted by the National Disaster Safety Research Institute in 2018, as soon as a blackout occurs, 2.7 million traffic lights and street lamps nationwide go out. Then, major transportation facilities such as railroads, subways, and ports stop, paralyzing all land and sea transportation across the country.

Next is the water outage. One hour after the blackout occurs, tap water is cut off nationwide. To operate water purification plants that supply tap water, pumps must be operated, but with the power supply cut off, the pumps stop, and the supply of drinking water is also interrupted.

Three hours after the blackout, even emergency power at hospitals and blood banks is cut off. Since transportation is already paralyzed, blood supply becomes impossible. In addition, medical devices in intensive care units, emergency rooms, and operating rooms of large hospitals stop working, putting the lives of patients dependent on ventilators and other devices at risk.

A New York citizen directing traffic with hand signals on a road where all traffic lights are out due to a blackout. While some people are looting and setting fires, there are also those who volunteer like this.
[Photo by YouTube screen capture]

Seven hours after the blackout, the air traffic control system is paralyzed, making aircraft takeoff and landing impossible, cutting off air traffic. Emergency generators in high-rise buildings reach their limits, and elevators stop, forcing people to carry flashlights and use stairs. Even more despairing is that by this time, food in refrigerators spoils. However, restaurants, stores, and banks are all closed, so there is no way to supply food and other necessities.

Ten hours after the blackout, communication networks are paralyzed. All tools to obtain disaster information such as phones, TV, radio, and the internet become inoperative. This time is the "golden time" to minimize the damage of the blackout. How the response is handled within 10 hours determines not only the scale of the damage but also whether the national or social system can be maintained.

It is necessary to decide whether to maintain the functions of important national infrastructure such as government office computer networks, finance, and dam operations, and to restore all to normal within 24 hours.

Twenty-four hours after the blackout, gas facilities, which account for 26.8% of power consumption, stop. Then, important national infrastructure rapidly collapses. Forty-eight hours after the blackout, oil facilities and computer networks and finance of important institutions, which had been barely maintained, are paralyzed, and if the blackout exceeds three days, public order collapses and the country loses its functions.

In March 2019, Venezuela experienced a blackout event suspected to be caused by a virus attack over about three weeks, resulting in many deaths and riots. In July of the same year, New York also experienced a blackout lasting about five hours, during which all traffic lights went out, pushing city functions into a serious situation.

The problem is that such blackouts occur not due to system errors but due to terrorism or space radiation. This means they can occur in situations that human efforts and systems cannot prevent. The greatest threat is cyberattacks. In 2015, the Kyivenergo power plant in Ukraine was cyberattacked, causing a blackout for about three hours and affecting about 80,000 households.

In Korea, in 2014, nuclear power plants were attacked by hackers, resulting in the theft of confidential data, but fortunately, there was no abnormality in nuclear power plant operations. Globally, threats of cyberattacks on critical national infrastructure and social damage are increasing. Since no country on earth is free from cyberattacks, cybersecurity to prevent blackouts is becoming increasingly fortified worldwide.

The gas layer on the surface of the sun just before an explosion. If an ultra-powerful solar storm hits Earth, the entire world could experience a blackout in an instant.
[Photo by YouTube screenshot]

Preparation is also needed for the possibility of blackouts caused by space radiation. When solar activity causes rapid changes in the magnetic field near power lines, an induced current phenomenon occurs inside the power lines, simultaneously damaging transformers and causing large-scale blackouts.

In November 2003, a transformer at a power plant in South Africa was damaged, and in October of the same year, a transformer malfunction at a nuclear power plant in Sweden caused a 30-minute blackout. In 1989, transformers at a power plant in New Jersey, USA, were damaged, causing property damage of about 26 million dollars, and in the same month, transmission facilities at a power plant in Quebec, Canada, were damaged, causing a 9-hour blackout affecting 6 million residents.

To prevent blackouts caused by cyberattacks and space radiation, actively managing information security of the national power grid and major institutions can somewhat respond to terrorism and space radiation.

Observing the blackout events in other countries and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the crisis response levels of countries in South America, North America, and various European countries, there are many lessons to be learned. The most important pillar that keeps a country stable in a crisis situation is a wise government, isn't it?