[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Hyun-ui] As the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation stabilizes, concerns about a 'second wave' are becoming a reality.
On the 21st, quarantine authorities forecast that COVID-19, which progresses with mild or no symptoms and has high transmissibility, will likely lead to a prolonged battle rather than a short-term end.
Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said the day before, "COVID-19 is expected to repeat waves of outbreaks and remissions, and in winter, when the environment is favorable for the virus, it could lead to a large-scale outbreak," adding, "There is also a possibility that the epidemic will continue for a year or several years."
COVID-19 is the third pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) after the 1968 Hong Kong flu and the 2009 novel influenza. In fact, both the Hong Kong flu and novel influenza led to a second wave of spread. The Hong Kong flu, which occurred in July 1968, began to subside from April 1969 but re-emerged in North America and Europe at the end of that year, continuing until the early to mid-1970s. The novel influenza, first detected in April 2009, saw a second wave in the fall of the same year in the United States and Northern Hemisphere countries about six months later.
Experts see a high possibility of a second infection wave of COVID-19, based on the surge in confirmed cases in Singapore, which was regarded as a 'model country' for quarantine despite the lack of vaccines and treatments. Kim Kang-lip, the first chief coordinator of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (Vice Minister of Health and Welfare), emphasized the day before, "Until vaccines and treatments are developed, it is impossible to completely prevent infections," adding, "We must remain vigilant." Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and member of the White House COVID-19 Task Force, also mentioned the possibility of a second wave this fall.
Some voices express concern that the second wave of COVID-19 could be more dangerous than the first. This is similar to the phenomenon seen with the 1918 Spanish flu, known as the 'mother of pandemics,' which claimed more lives during subsequent infection waves. The Spanish flu, which swept the world and caused tens of millions of deaths, was initially not highly fatal but rapidly increased in mortality rate as mutations occurred.
Kent Sepkowitz, an infectious disease expert at the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, said in an interview with CNN, "During subsequent waves, the COVID-19 virus will penetrate from large cities like New York to small and medium-sized cities," adding, "Since small and medium-sized cities lack sufficient medical facilities to respond to COVID-19, patients will be transferred to large cities, and the virus will then move back from small and medium-sized cities to large cities, potentially causing large-scale infections."
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