COVID-19 Global Fatality Rate Approaches 6%... Exceeds 10% in Major European Countries

Global COVID-19 Cases Surpass 2 Million, Deaths Near 120,000
Italy, UK, France, Spain Exceed 10%, Germany Around 2%
Higher Fatality Rates in Countries with Medical Infrastructure Gaps and Dense Populations

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the global cumulative confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) surpassed 2 million, the worldwide fatality rate is approaching 6%. The fatality rates estimated by the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases vary widely from the 2% range to the 10% range across countries. While major European countries such as Italy, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom have fatality rates exceeding 10%, the United States and China show rates in the 4% range, and Germany and South Korea are in the 2% range, indicating significant disparities.

According to COVID-19 statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States as of the 13th (local time), the global cumulative confirmed cases totaled 2,019,320, with deaths reaching 119,483. The global average fatality rate, estimated by deaths relative to confirmed cases, is 5.92%. Major European countries such as Italy (12.82%), the United Kingdom (12.66%), France (10.86%), and Spain (10.39%) showed figures above 10%. Italy's cumulative death toll surpassed 20,000 on this day, and the UK exceeded 10,000 deaths, causing their fatality rates to rise significantly.

As of this day, the United States, which recorded the highest number of confirmed cases and deaths worldwide with 682,619 confirmed cases and 23,529 deaths, showed a fatality rate of 3.45%, lower compared to Europe. China, the first country where COVID-19 spread, recorded 4.01%, also below the global average. Among European countries, Germany recorded 2.45%, and South Korea 2.05%, both in the 2% range.

The large disparity in fatality rates even among European countries is attributed to differences in medical infrastructure. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data, the number of medical personnel per 1,000 people was 32.2 in Italy and 30.1 in Spain, whereas Germany recorded 71.1. The number of intensive care unit beds per 1,000 people was 2.6 in Italy and 2.4 in Spain, less than half of Germany’s 6.0. Italy and Spain have faced continuous cuts in medical budgets following the Southern European financial and fiscal crisis in 2011, and a large outflow of medical personnel overseas, which has significantly weakened their medical infrastructure.

Countries with high fatality rates also experienced a rapid increase in patients centered in densely populated metropolitan areas, leading to a swift depletion of medical resources, which is analyzed to have contributed to the sharp rise in fatality rates. According to Bloomberg News, in Italy, a large number of patients emerged in the industrialized northern industrial zone, and in Spain, in densely populated areas such as the capital Madrid and northeastern Catalonia, spreading nationwide and causing the medical system to collapse rapidly. The UK and France also saw rapid spread of confirmed cases centered around metropolitan areas, making it difficult for their medical systems to function properly.