[Hotspot Public Opinion - Goyang Gap] '4th Term Challenge' Sim Sang-jung Leads Poll... Moon Myeong-sun and Lee Kyung-hwan 'Chasing'

Moon Myeong-sun, the Democratic Party candidate, Lee Kyung-hwan of the United Future Party, and Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party, running in Goyang Gap, Gyeonggi Province. (From left)
Photo by Yonhap News

The Democratic Party's Moon Myeong-sun and the United Future Party's Lee Kyung-hwan are challenging Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jung, leading to a fierce battle. From left: Moon Myeong-sun of the Democratic Party, Lee Kyung-hwan of the United Future Party, and Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party.

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Jin-young] Goyang Gap in Gyeonggi Province is a three-way race between Moon Myeong-sun of the Democratic Party of Korea, a former member of the Korean Federation of Trade Unions, Lee Kyung-hwan of the United Future Party, a real estate specialist lawyer, and Shim Sang-jung of the Justice Party, the incumbent in this area.

Recent polls have shown that candidate Shim is leading beyond the margin of error.

In a poll conducted by TV Chosun through Matrix Research on the 5th, surveying 500 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Goyang City Gap electoral district, candidate Shim received 37.5%, candidate Lee 27.3%, and candidate Moon 26.2%.

The gap between candidate Shim and second-place candidate Lee is 10.2 percentage points, which is beyond the margin of error.

Candidate Shim received the most support in all age groups except those aged 60 and over, while candidate Lee showed strength among those aged 60 and above.

When asked about the likelihood of winning, candidate Shim received 41.6%, candidate Moon 23.7%, and candidate Lee 18.1%.

Party support rates were 42.6% for the Democratic Party, 23.9% for the United Future Party, and 11.2% for the Justice Party.

Candidate Shim is receiving more than three times the support compared to the party support rate in this Democratic Party stronghold, whereas candidate Moon is showing a support rate 16.4 percentage points lower than the party support rate.

This survey was conducted 100% via wireless telephone interviews, with a response rate of 24.5%.

The sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

In a poll conducted by JoongAng Ilbo through Ipsos from the 5th to the 6th, surveying 500 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Goyang City Gap electoral district, candidate Shim was also shown to be leading beyond the margin of error.

Candidate Shim received 40.1%, ahead of candidate Moon (24.1%) and candidate Lee (22.7%).

The gap between candidate Shim and second-place candidate Moon is 16 percentage points, exceeding the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points).

Candidate Shim received support in the 40% range across all age groups except those aged 60 and over.

The survey was conducted via both landline and wireless telephone interviews (landline 20.2% + wireless 79.8%), with a response rate of 14%.

The sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. (For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

Goyang Gap has been won by the progressive camp four times out of the last five elections. In the 2003 by-election and the 2004 17th general election, Yoo Si-min, director of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation, was elected here.

In the 20th general election, candidate Shim won with 71,043 votes (52.9%), defeating Saenuri Party candidate Son Beom-gyu (49,356 votes, 36.8%) and Democratic Party candidate Park Jun (11,726 votes, 8.7%).

All three candidates emphasize that they are the right person to solve the local issue of traffic problems.

Candidate Shim, who is running for a fourth term, appeals for support citing achievements such as the groundbreaking of the 수도권광역급행철도 (GTX) and the confirmation of the Goyang Line.

Candidate Moon pledges to restore the suburban line, double-track it, and extend the Jori Line (Line 3) to establish three new stations.

Candidate Lee proposes to divide Gyeonggi Province into north and south, attract the Gyeonggi Northern Provincial Office to Goyang City, and solve traffic congestion by constructing the Gangbuk East-West Urban Expressway.