Analysis of Electoral Districts Between Ruling and Opposition Parties: Democratic Party Expected to Secure Over 130 Seats, United Party Up to 130 Seats

On the 2nd, the official election campaign for the 21st National Assembly election began. At the 'Democratic Party of Korea-Democratic Citizens' Party 21st General Election Central Election Committee Joint Launch Ceremony' held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, Lee Hae-chan, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, Lee Nak-yeon, standing election committee chairman of the Democratic Party of Korea, Choi Bae-geun, standing co-chairman of the Democratic Citizens' Party, and officials from both parties applauded after the launch ceremony. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporters Kim Hyemin and Kang Nahum] On the 8th, one week before the 21st general election, out of 253 constituency seats, the Democratic Party of Korea is projected to secure 'more than 130 seats,' while the United Future Party is expected to secure 'up to 130 seats.'

Lee Hae-chan, leader of the Democratic Party, said in an interview on 'Yoo Si-min's Alileo' on the 7th, "We will easily secure the targeted 130 seats, but since there are many competitive districts mainly in the metropolitan area, we cannot recklessly raise the target number of seats," adding, "The key is how many seats we can secure in the competitive areas."

The Democratic Party classified 85-87 districts in the metropolitan area, 17-19 in the Chungcheong region, 26 in the Honam region, 11-13 in the Yeongnam region, and 6 in Gangwon and Jeju as favorable or slightly favorable competitive areas based on internal analysis.

On the other hand, Park Hyung-joon, co-chairman of the United Future Party's joint election committee, told reporters right after a press conference on the 8th, "If we create a wind in the metropolitan area, there will be good results," and said, "Our goal is to win 130 seats in the constituencies."

The United Future Party sees itself as favorable or narrowly leading in 25-27 districts in the metropolitan area, 16 in the Chungcheong region, 37-39 in the Yeongnam region, and 4 in Gangwon and Jeju.

The Democratic Party especially predicted a stable victory in the metropolitan area, which has the most seats. However, Lee identified Seoul Songpa-eul, Goyang-gap in Gyeonggi, and Yeonsu-eul in Incheon as ultra-competitive districts. He said, "Songpa-eul in Seoul is an ultra-competitive district. Goyang-gap in Gyeonggi, where Assemblywoman Sim Sang-jung is running, Dongjak-eul in Seoul, and Yeonsu-eul in Incheon, where Assemblywoman Lee Jeong-mi is running, are also competitive districts." He added, "In Gyeonggi, Yongin-jeong and Namyangju-byeong, where Judge Lee Tan-hee is running, are ultra-competitive districts. Yangpyeong has traditionally been a difficult area for us. We have caught up more than expected, and next to it, Icheon is currently leading for us."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The United Future Party forecasted a rebound in the metropolitan area, where it had consistently been at a disadvantage. Chairman Park said, "As the election nears its end, most areas in the metropolitan region are becoming competitive." He specifically mentioned Gwangjin-eul and Dongjak-eul. Regarding the Jongno election, he said, "It is improving," and predicted, "It will become ultra-competitive over this weekend." He expressed confidence, saying, "I do not put much meaning on the current situation, especially the polls-based standings. We will see results beyond that."

The Democratic Party expects a landslide victory in Honam, while the United Future Party anticipates a landslide in Daegu and Gyeongbuk. The Democratic Party forecasts winning 26 out of 28 districts in Honam, and the United Future Party expects to win 24 out of 25 districts in Daegu and Gyeongbuk.

In the key battleground of PK (Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam), the United Future Party showed confidence. Excluding the competitive districts where the outcome is unpredictable (4 in Busan, 1 in Ulsan, 3 in Gyeongnam), they expect to win all remaining constituencies. In particular, they expect to firmly secure seats in Sasang (Jang Je-won) and Bukgangseo-eul (Kim Do-eup) in Busan. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party predicted being favorable or slightly favorable in 11-13 districts in the PK region. In Busan, they identified Bukgangseo-gap (Jeon Jae-su), Namgu-eul (Park Jae-ho), and Jungyeongdo (Kim Bi-o) as favorable districts.