[Hotbed Public Opinion - Songpa-eul] '5th Term Challenge' Choi Jae-sung & 'Retry' Bae Hyun-jin, Unpredictable 'Close Race'

Choi Jae-sung, the Democratic Party candidate running in Songpa-eul, Seoul (left), and Bae Hyun-jin, the United Future Party candidate.
Photo by each candidate

[Asia Economy Reporter Jin-Young Hwang] The Seoul Songpa-eul district, where Choi Jae-sung of the Democratic Party of Korea, aiming for a fifth term, and Bae Hyun-jin of the United Future Party, who is making a comeback after the 2018 by-election, are having a rematch, continues to see a close race that is difficult to call.

In a poll conducted by KBS through Korea Research from the 2nd to the 4th targeting 500 men and women aged 18 and over residing in the Songpa-eul district, Choi received 43.0% and Bae 41.0%.

Among the active voters who answered "I will definitely vote" (82.1%), the first and second places switched.

Bae received 44.6%, and Choi 43.8%, showing Bae slightly ahead within the margin of error.

On the other hand, when asked about the likelihood of winning, Choi scored 51.2%, while Bae scored 33.8%.

The survey was conducted via landline and mobile phone interviews, with a response rate of 11.5%.

The sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

A poll conducted by JoongAng Ilbo through Ipsos on the 13th and 14th of last month showed Bae leading within the margin of error.

Bae received 40.3%, and Choi 37.5%.

Unlike the KBS-Korea Research poll where Choi led by 2 percentage points, Bae led by 2.8 percentage points in the JoongAng Ilbo-Ipsos poll.

In the JoongAng Ilbo-Ipsos poll, Bae showed strength among those aged 60 and over (57.3%), those in their 50s (50.8%), housewives (52.4%), and self-employed individuals (51.8%).

Choi showed higher support among those in their 40s (46.9%) and 30s (46.4%), and by occupation, white-collar workers (44.9%).

When asked who they think will win regardless of support, Choi received 38.1%, 5.8 percentage points higher than Bae's 32.3%.

Thus, Choi was rated higher than Bae in terms of winning probability in both polls, regardless of support rates.

Choi and Bae previously competed in the 2018 National Assembly by-election.

Choi won decisively with 58,958 votes (54.4%) against Bae's 32,126 votes (29.6%).

At that time, Park Jong-jin of the Bareunmirae Party took 16,540 votes (15.3%), splitting the conservative vote.

Unlike two years ago, this general election is expected to see a split in the pro-government vote.

In the 2018 by-election, there was no Justice Party candidate, but this general election, Ahn Sook-hyun is running as the Justice Party nominee.

Ahn received 2.3% in the JoongAng Ilbo-Ipsos poll but 4.9% in the KBS-Korea Research poll.

If the victory margin is within 3 percentage points, Ahn's vote share is expected to be a variable that could determine the outcome.

This survey was conducted via telephone interviews combining wireless virtual numbers (80.0%) and random digit dialing (RDD) to landlines (20.0%) targeting 500 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Songpa-eul, with a response rate of 9.9%.

The sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed information, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.