[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] North Korea Likely to Launch Additional New Weapons

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] There are observations that North Korea will continue test launches to complete new weapons. Currently, it is in the final stage of new weapon development, and if deployed to the forces, joint training with multiple rocket launchers and others will be necessary.

According to military officials on the 23rd, the two short-range ballistic missile presumed projectiles launched on the 21st performed "anomalous maneuvers" (pull-up, glide, and ascent) during flight, and are evaluated as North Korean versions of ATACMS or Iskander-class missiles. These test launches aim to enhance the completeness of North Korea's new four-weapon set: new tactical guided missiles (tactical guided weapons, North Korean version of Iskander), new large-caliber guided multiple rocket launchers, North Korean version of ATACMS, and super-large multiple rocket launchers.

If the missiles launched by North Korea are North Korean versions of ATACMS, this is the first launch in about seven months since August 10 and 16 last year. On August 10 last year, North Korea launched a missile from Hamhung, South Hamgyong Province, into the East Sea with a range of about 400 km (altitude 48 km), and on August 16, from Tongcheon, Kangwon Province, northeastward into the East Sea with a range of about 230 km (altitude 30 km).

Experts judge that, based on North Korea's ballistic missile test patterns, this is likely a range capability test ahead of actual deployment. North Korea usually fires from the east coast into the East Sea, but at the deployment stage, it fires through inland penetration. This time, the missile was launched from Sunchon County adjacent to Cholsan County in North Pyongan Province, passed through inland, and fell into the East Sea.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Far East Institute at Gyeongnam National University said, "It is highly likely to be either the North Korean version of Iskander (KN-23) or the North Korean version of ATACMS," adding, "Since ATACMS has not yet conducted inland penetration launches, it is possible that this was a test launch for development."

The Korean Central News Agency also reported on the 22nd that "the test firing was conducted with the purpose of reaffirming the tactical characteristics and power of the new weapon system delivered to the People's Army units and directly showing it to the People's Army command members." The event was attended by officials from the defense science research sector such as Jang Chang-ha and Jeon Il-ho, and appears to have been led by missile research and development institutions.

Given that the launch site was near the west coast, if ATACMS was launched, it is observed that the test launch was conducted after upgrading its performance. On the other hand, if it was Iskander, which completed inland penetration launches in the Guseong area of North Pyongan Province on May 9 last year, it is analyzed to be currently deployed and operated by actual combat units.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Defense Security Forum (KODEF), said, "Judging by the pull-up maneuver, it is highly likely to be the North Korean version of ATACMS," adding, "This is North Korea's usual missile pattern. They moved inland and fired to extend the range."

When considering it as the North Korean version of ATACMS, the interval between launches this time was 5 minutes, the shortest so far. On August 10 last year, the two missiles were launched at 5:34 a.m. and 5:50 a.m., with a 16-minute interval. On August 16, they were launched at 8:01 a.m. and 8:16 a.m., with a 15-minute interval. Although the interval was reduced by about 10 minutes, experts argue that the 5-minute interval shows that the continuous launch capability has not yet reached its full potential.

The North Korean version of ATACMS is launched from a tracked or vehicle-type transporter erector launcher (TEL) equipped with two launch tubes. It can hide in tunnels and forests, emerge into open areas to launch two missiles consecutively, and quickly conceal itself again. If the interval between two launches is 1 to 2 minutes, it would be difficult for South Korean and U.S. military authorities to strike with surface-to-surface missiles or precision-guided weapons. North Korea is likely to continue launches to shorten the time for multiple consecutive firings. The ATACMS currently deployed in the South Korean military contains 950 submunitions, capable of devastating an area equivalent to 3 to 4 soccer fields.

Some view this launch as part of North Korea's winter military training, but considering North Korea's recent internal and external situations, it is also interpreted as having other political intentions. It is seen as a move to strengthen Chairman Kim's leadership amid the COVID-19 situation and to attract U.S. attention.