[The Editors' Verdict] The Principle of Good Trees and Good Fruits Is an Illusion

Young-gi Cho, Adjunct Professor at the Graduate School of Political Science, Kookmin University · Chairman of the Advanced Unification Research Association, Hanseon Foundation

In court, the theory of toxic trees and toxic fruits (독수독과), which states that the fruit of a poisonous tree is also poisonous, seems to have exceptions in civil lawsuits. Conversely, there are many cases where good actions do not necessarily lead to good results, contrary to the principle of good trees and good fruits (선수선과). Especially, the fact that the principle of good trees and good fruits had almost no room to be applied in inter-Korean relations has been proven throughout the history of inter-Korean negotiations. On the contrary, we have often seen that misapplying the principle of good trees and good fruits has brought about greater disasters (禍). After the inauguration of the Moon Jae-in administration, a brief peace mood was created on the Korean Peninsula around the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. However, the Hanoi no-deal between North Korea and the U.S. in February 2019 reaffirmed that the peace mood was an illusion.

North Korea's brief participation in the peace mode in 2018 was by no means the creation of a genuine peace mode on the Korean Peninsula. It was rather an attempt to escape international sanctions pressure caused by nuclear tests and long-range ballistic missile launches. In other words, North Korea's intention was to use the "peace mood" to demand "economic support while possessing nuclear weapons" from South Korea under the banner of ethnic cooperation, and "sanctions relief while possessing nuclear weapons" from the international community. When this intention collapsed in Hanoi, North Korea immediately switched to a hardline mode. North Korea's sudden change once again proved that the principle of good trees and good fruits is based on a ridiculous illusion.

Despite North Korea's sudden change, President Moon Jae-in has maintained the principle of good trees and good fruits without change. On the other hand, North Korea has thoroughly ignored our government and responded with provocations and harsh remarks. The 13 missile provocations since May last year, as well as mockery and disparagement aimed at President Moon, such as calling him an "overly meddlesome mediator" and "boiled small brain laughing out loud (앙천대소)," are intentional strategies of disregard. This disregard strategy has continued this year as well. That is, the three missile launches, Kim Yo-jong's harsh words, and Kim Jong-un's letter followed by tension-building are all in the same context. However, the Blue House has consistently remained silent, avoiding effective responses. This silence from the Blue House is a very wrong response as it severely damages the pride and self-esteem of the people. So much so that rumors circulate in the market saying, "Is the reason the Blue House cannot respond properly because North Korea has caught a fatal weakness(?) of them?" This reality is truly regrettable.

The best scenario for North Korea policy is that North Korea actively responds to the principle of good trees and good fruits. However, history has proven that the possibility is almost none when looking back at the process so far. Currently, various threat factors are overlappingly operating in North Korea. Especially, since 2017, the economic crisis has been progressing due to international economic sanctions against North Korea, and the border closure measures to block the inflow of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) have further deepened the economic crisis. The deepened economic crisis inevitably leads to depletion of ruling funds, which adversely affects Kim Jong-un's leadership. This comprehensive crisis in North Korea is an opportunity for our government to take the initiative in negotiations. Rather than seeking ways to utilize North Korea's comprehensive crisis, the government seems to be looking for emergency transfusion measures. In the 2020 Ministry of Unification's work report, the North Korea policy focuses on "preemptive sanction exemptions," "promotion of individual tourism," and "diversification and expansion of exchanges and cooperation."

It is time to recognize that the principle of good trees and good fruits is an illusion and to escape from the swamp of that illusion. First, patience is needed to wait until North Korea, facing a comprehensive crisis, bows its head. The moment we show an eagerness to negotiate, our negotiating power inevitably declines. Also, there are many precedents where not holding talks has achieved greater effects than holding them. Therefore, now is the time to focus on preparing alternatives to take the initiative in inter-Korean negotiations by shifting to Plan B. Only then can we find the path to normalize North Korea and liberate the North Korean people.

Jo Young-ki, Invited Professor at the Graduate School of Political Science, Kookmin University · Chairman of the Advanced Unification Research Association, Hanseon Foundation