[D-50] 21 Ultra-Close Battlegrounds, See the Situation Here... What About Sim Jae-cheol's District?

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] Three incumbent Democratic Party lawmakers who were cut off?Shin Chang-hyun (Gyeonggi Uiwang-Gwacheon), Jeong Jae-ho (Gyeonggi Goyang-eul), and Oh Je-se (Chungbuk Cheongju Seowon)?share a common trait. All of them narrowly won in the 20th general election four years ago.

Shin won by a margin of 3.33 percentage points, while Oh and Jeong entered the National Assembly with slim margins of 1.29 and 0.94 percentage points, respectively. Although there were various factors behind their cutoffs, this aspect likely played a role. From the Democratic Party’s perspective, a card with a higher probability of success may have been needed. This also indicates that these are regions where attention is highly focused.

In the 20th general election, there were 21 constituencies in the metropolitan area where the gap between the first and second place candidates was less than 3.5 percentage points: 11 in Seoul, 8 in Gyeonggi, and 2 in Incheon. After close contests, the Democratic Party won 14 of these districts. At that time, the Saenuri Party won 6, and the People’s Party won 1.

These were areas where public sentiment was not heavily skewed toward one side four years ago. They serve as barometers and battlegrounds to gauge the current political landscape.

In Seoul, districts such as Yongsan, Gwangjin-gap, Nowon-gap, Yangcheon-eul, Geumcheon, Yeongdeungpo-eul, Dongjak-gap, Songpa-gap, Gangdong-eul, Gwanak-gap, and Jung-gu were decided by margins within 3.5 percentage points. In Gwanak-gap, Kim Seong-sik, who recently left the Bareunmirae Party, ran as the People’s Party candidate and narrowly defeated Democratic candidate Yoo Ki-hong by just 0.88 percentage points.

In Incheon, Park Chan-dae of the Democratic Party entered the National Assembly from Yeonsu-gap by a dramatic margin of 0.29 percentage points, and Jeong Yoo-seop of the United Future Party won from Bupyeong-gap by only 0.02 percentage points. In Gyeonggi Province, close contests took place in Anyang Dongan-eul, Ansan Sangnok-eul, Ansan Danwon-gap, Goyang-eul, Uiwang-Gwacheon, Namyangju-gap, Gunpo-gap, and Gwangju-gap.

Among these, Anyang Dongan-eul is the constituency of Shim Jae-cheol, floor leader of the United Future Party, where Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Jae-jung and Justice Party lawmaker Chu Hye-sun also declared their candidacies. Shim, too, narrowly won four years ago by a margin of 1.95 percentage points against Democratic candidate Lee Jung-guk. This district is one of the most closely watched in Gyeonggi, and numerous opinion polls have been conducted.

According to an opinion poll conducted by SBS through Ipsos from the 28th to 30th of last month in Anyang Dongan-eul, 42.8% of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic Party in the party vote. The Liberty Korea Party (now United Future Party) received 25.1%, Justice Party 11.9%, Bareunmirae Party 3.9%, and New Conservative Party 2.2%. The sample size was 505, with 15.6% from landline RDD (random digit dialing) and 84.4% from mobile virtual numbers. The response rate was 16.4% (9.8% for landline, 18.7% for mobile).

Looking at party support alone, the Democratic Party leads significantly. In another poll commissioned by Joongboo Ilbo to iSoftBank on the 17th and 18th, a hypothetical matchup showed Lee Jae-jung leading floor leader Shim with 41.6% to 36.8%. The sample size was 501, with 70% mobile and 30% landline, and response rates of 6.1% for mobile, 0.3% for landline, and 1.1% overall. This result surpasses the personal competitiveness of the floor leader.

One of the biggest variables in the general election four years ago was the People’s Party. Based on overwhelming support in the Honam region, it achieved a party vote share of 26.7%, higher than the Democratic Party’s 25.5%. This also mobilized Honam-affiliated voters in non-Honam regions, with an average of around 15% of votes in Gyeonggi constituencies.

However, this time, there is widespread speculation that the so-called third zone, including the People’s Party, will not have as strong a wind. According to a poll conducted by Realmeter for YTN from the 17th to 21st, the support rate for Ahn Cheol-soo’s People’s Party was only 2.3%. Bareunmirae Party had 3.0%, the Peace Party 2.2%, and the Alternative New Party 1.3%. The survey contacted 45,462 voters nationwide aged 18 and over, with 2,512 completing the survey, a response rate of 5.5%, and a margin of error of ±2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Detailed information on these polls can be found on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Ultimately, where the votes that defected from the People’s Party supporters in the past will go is bound to have a major impact on the overall race, including the battlegrounds.

ResearchView CEO Ahn Il-won said, "More than half of the voters who supported the People’s Party in the 20th general election were identified as conservative opposition supporters," adding, "On the other hand, it should also be considered that a large number of Honam voters are likely to shift their support to the Democratic Party this time."