Swedish Researchers: "COVID-19 Transmission Much Stronger Than WHO Estimates"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] A study has found that the transmissibility of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is much stronger than estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO).

According to a paper published on the 14th (local time) in the international journal Journal of Travel Medicine by researchers from Ume? University in Sweden, the transmissibility of COVID-19 is known to be stronger than the previous estimates by WHO. The Ume? University research team found that the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 averaged 3.28, with a median of 2.79, which is significantly higher than WHO's estimate of 1.4 to 2.5. The basic reproduction number indicates how many healthy individuals one infected person can transmit the virus to.

A higher reproduction number means stronger transmissibility, and if the reproduction number falls below 1, it indicates that the epidemic is entering a phase of decline. The research team selected and comprehensively reanalyzed 12 studies on COVID-19 that met qualitative criteria. Researchers from Heidelberg, Germany, and Zhangzhou, Fujian Province, China, also participated in this study.

The transmissibility of COVID-19 was initially estimated relatively low in early studies, but as the situation escalated, it rapidly increased and recent studies converge around a level of 2 to 3, the research team explained. Joakim Rockl?v, a professor of epidemiology at Ume? University and one of the authors of the paper, stated, "The transmissibility of the novel coronavirus is analyzed to be at least comparable to that of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)," adding, "This shows that the situation is serious in many respects."