[Economic Outlook] First Employment Report of the New Year Released... Economic Assessment of 'Corona' Impact

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bo-kyung] Next week, the first employment report of the new year will be released. There is also interest in how the government will assess the economic impact of the novel coronavirus infection (Wuhan pneumonia) through the Recent Economic Trends (Green Book).

On the 12th, Statistics Korea will announce the employment trends for January 2020. Attention is focused on whether the favorable employment trend will continue into the new year, following an increase of over 500,000 employed persons in December last year.

The annual increase in employed persons last year was 301,000, recovering to the 300,000 level for the first time in two years since 2017. This figure is more than three times the increase in 2018 (97,000) and significantly exceeds the government’s target of 200,000.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance will publish the February issue of the Recent Economic Trends (Green Book) on the 14th. Earlier, in the first Green Book of this year, the ministry evaluated the recent Korean economic situation by noting that service sector production and consumption are gradually increasing, and facility investment is gradually recovering from sluggishness, while exports and construction investment remain in an adjustment phase.

In this Green Book, there is interest in how the government will assess the impact of the novel coronavirus, which began spreading in earnest from late January, on the Korean economy.

On the 10th, the Ministry of Economy and Finance will announce the final results of total revenue and total expenditure for last year, revealing how much national tax revenue was collected.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Hong Nam-ki stated at a press briefing on the 3rd, "Last year’s national tax revenue is expected to be 293.5 trillion won, falling short of the revenue budget by 1.3 trillion won."

On the same day, the Bank of Korea will release the financial market trends for January. Attention is expected to focus on whether the increase in bank housing loans has slowed due to loan regulations following the December 16 real estate measures.

In December last year, bank housing loans increased by 5.6 trillion won (7.6%), marking the largest monthly increase in three years and four months. This was the largest increase for December since 2015.

The Bank of Korea will announce the export and import price indices for January on the 14th. In December last year, export prices rose 0.8% month-on-month due to the weak won and rising international oil prices. Compared to a year earlier, export prices fell 3.1% due to a decline in semiconductor prices, continuing a downward trend for seven consecutive months.