[The Editors' Verdict] Conditions for Achieving a Nuclear-Free State

Choyounggi, Visiting Professor at Kookmin UniversityㆍHan Seon Foundation Advanced Unification Research Association Chairman

At the end of last year, North Korea held the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party. As the year-end deadline for the 'new path' arbitrarily set by North Korea approached, it became the greatest focus of attention. It is also unusual that the plenary meeting's decision was replaced by the New Year's address, setting the direction for struggle in 2020.

Behind North Korea's unusual behavior lies the fact that the domestic and international situation created after the Hanoi no-deal in February last year is very severe. The severe situation is confirmed by the slogan of struggle, "Let us break through all obstacles hindering our advance with a frontal breakthrough battle." Furthermore, the urgency of the current situation can be seen between the lines of the term 'frontal breakthrough (battle),' which was emphasized 23 times, confirming the effectiveness of the sanctions against North Korea. Therefore, this plenary meeting decision document unusually includes more than half of its content related to the economy to neutralize economic sanctions. This confesses the urgency that North Korea's economic situation has become vulnerable due to sanctions and is likely to remain vulnerable in the future.

The 'new path' set by North Korea is a path of provocation, threatening "to conduct additional nuclear tests or launch intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)" if economic sanctions are not eased. In other words, the 'new path' is a product of brinkmanship aimed at obtaining greater concessions from the international community by declaring the termination of the nuclear and missile moratorium (suspension of tests and launches). Of course, the end point of this brinkmanship is 'sanctions relief while maintaining nuclear possession.' The plenary meeting also clearly stated that North Korea's nuclear weapons, as the Juche sword guaranteeing sovereignty by maintaining a "constant readiness posture of strong nuclear deterrence," can never be a subject of dialogue or negotiation.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden, in its 2019 Yearbook on Armaments, Disarmament, and International Security, states that North Korea already possesses 60 nuclear warheads. Although it is hard to accept, North Korea has effectively become a nuclear-armed state. This proves that the 30-year history of dialogue and negotiation has completely failed. Therefore, a new strategy, rather than the existing approach, is required. However, on the 7th and 14th, President Moon Jae-in emphasized the 'priority of inter-Korean relations' in his New Year's address and press conference. The 'priority of inter-Korean relations' is an approach that maintains the existing framework of dialogue and negotiation, which predicts failure. It also strengthens North Korea's position of 'sanctions relief while possessing nuclear weapons,' making the resolution of the nuclear issue more distant. Therefore, the prerequisite task is to find a path to a 'nuclear-free state,' not a 'nuclear-armed state,' and sanctions relief is a matter for later.

This plenary meeting reflects deep concerns about a 'second Arduous March' caused by economic sanctions against North Korea. The fact that North Korea is very worried about the economic crisis confirms that economic sanctions are an important bargaining tool. In this regard, North Korea's severe economic crisis is a means for us to move toward a 'nuclear-free state.' The primary task is how to create an economic crisis situation in North Korea.

The conditions for this primary task are found in United Nations Security Council Resolution 2270 (March 2, 2016). Resolution 2270 directly targets North Korea's economy, and signs of entering a total crisis phase are being confirmed. Signs such as negative growth, drastic export decline, suspension of overseas labor dispatch, and dollar shortages will deepen the crisis. Therefore, now is the time to further tighten international cooperation on economic sanctions against North Korea, not to prioritize the development of inter-Korean relations.

A shift in perception that economic sanctions are the only peaceful means to dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons is urgently needed. We must also devise plans to enhance our self-reliance capabilities to reduce and eliminate the direct threat of North Korea's nuclear weapons. In other words, to maintain a balance of terror, we should explore ways to develop independent nuclear capabilities or, within the framework of the ROK-US alliance, consider reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons or nuclear sharing. Only then will peace on the Korean Peninsula be possible in a nuclear-free state.