Iran Blocks Strait of Hormuz... Will International Oil Prices Top $100? [US Airstrikes on Iran]

Fears of Escalation After Reports of Khamenei's Death
Shockwaves Hit the Virtual Asset Market as Well

AP Yonhap News

There are growing concerns about a surge in international oil prices as U.S. President Donald Trump officially announced the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, on February 28 (local time). With reports that Iran has begun blocking the Strait of Hormuz-which accounts for over 20% of global oil shipments-some forecasts suggest that oil prices could spike to as much as $100 per barrel in the short term.

International oil prices are already on an upward trend. On the previous day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $67.02 per barrel, up 2.78% from the previous session, while Brent crude rose 2.87% to $72.87 per barrel. This marks the highest price since July of last year. If the impact of the Iranian airstrike and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei is reflected in the market after the weekend, international oil prices are expected to rise significantly.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, initiated by Iran in response to the airstrike, is also expected to drive oil prices higher. On this day, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced, "We are enforcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the invasion by the United States and Israel." According to Reuters, some vessels are already reported to have altered their routes after hearing news of the Strait’s closure.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint through which more than 20% of the world's maritime oil trade passes, so a significant shock to the oil market is anticipated. Will Hares and Salih Yilmaz, analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, projected that Brent crude prices could rise to around $80 per barrel in the short term.

If the conflict spreads to surrounding regions, some analyses indicate that oil prices could soar to $100 per barrel. The Barclays Energy Analysis Team stated, "The worst-case scenario could unfold in trading when the oil futures market reopens on March 2," adding, "Given the current situation, the potential threat of supply disruptions due to deteriorating security in the Middle East could drive Brent prices up to $100 per barrel."

Following the Iranian airstrikes, growing risk aversion has also led to a downturn in the virtual asset market. Bitcoin at one point fell to $63,038, dropping below a key psychological threshold, before rebounding to above the $65,000 mark later in the day. According to cryptocurrency data provider CoinGecko, approximately $128 billion (about 185 trillion won) in market capitalization disappeared from the digital asset market immediately after the airstrikes.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.