"I've Booked Hokkaido, What Should I Do?" Even Japanese Avoiding the Region... The Reason Behind the Panic [Sisasyo]

Research Results from Multiple Japanese Institutions
Magnitude 9+ Mega-Earthquake Possible
in Eastern Hokkaido Within Several Years

400-Year Cycle Raises Mega-Quake Risk
Concerns Over Direct and Indirect
Earthquake Damage in K

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily's "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show"

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop

■ Producer: PD Lee Miri

■ Guest: Reporter Lee Hyunwoo

A new research study has found that a massive earthquake with a magnitude of 9 or greater could occur within the next few years along the eastern coast of Hokkaido, Japan. This is not a matter of mere concern; multiple national research institutes jointly conducted the investigation, and the Japanese government has recently raised the estimated probability of such a major earthquake, heightening anxiety both within and outside of Japan.

Japanese Researchers: "High Likelihood of a Major Earthquake Every 400 Years"

A magnitude 9 or greater earthquake is highly likely to occur within the next few years in the Kuril Trench area located off the eastern coast of Hokkaido. The photo shows a region in Hokkaido, Japan. Photo by Getty Images

According to the joint investigation by several research institutes, including Tohoku University, Hokkaido University, and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, there is a high probability that a magnitude 9 or greater earthquake will occur within the next several years in the Kuril Trench area off the eastern coast of Hokkaido. The Kuril Trench is a major seismic zone where the Pacific Plate and the Okhotsk Plate meet, and it has been the site of repeated magnitude 8 to 9 or greater earthquakes and tsunamis throughout history.

Analysis of past earthquake records by the researchers revealed that major earthquakes have recurred in this region approximately every 400 years. The most recent major earthquake was a magnitude 8.8 event that occurred between 1611 and 1637, about 400 years ago from now. Based on this cycle, the researchers concluded that a major earthquake could occur at any time between now and 2037.

Even within Japan, there is a growing reluctance to travel or go on business trips to Hokkaido. Some companies are even showing resistance to assigning employees to branches in Hokkaido. Photo by Getty Images, a region in Hokkaido, Japan.

In addition, since 2019, the research team has installed and operated crustal movement monitoring equipment on the seafloor in this region. Their findings show that the tectonic plates are shifting more than 8 centimeters each year. Calculating the cumulative movement over the roughly 400 years since the 17th century yields a total of more than 20 meters. The researchers warn that if this much energy has accumulated in the Earth's crust, it would not be surprising for a magnitude 9 or greater earthquake to occur at any time.

If such a massive earthquake were to actually occur in this area, analysis suggests that a tsunami on the scale of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake could strike Hokkaido and the eastern coastal regions of Japan. It is feared that tsunami waves could reach heights of more than 20 meters, potentially resulting in tens of thousands of casualties in coastal areas.

Not only private research institutes but also the Japanese government share this sense of crisis. The government's Earthquake Research Committee recently raised the estimated probability of a magnitude 7.8 to 8.5 earthquake occurring off the eastern coast of Hokkaido within the next 30 years from 80% to 90%. In fact, the occurrence itself is now considered a given, and only the timing remains uncertain.

Unlike Weather, Earthquakes Are Unpredictable...Growing Fear of a Major Earthquake

In July last year, the Japanese government issued a warning alert about the possibility of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough area along the southern coastal region. Pixabay

With this news spreading, there is a growing reluctance even within Japan to travel or go on business trips to Hokkaido. Some companies are even showing resistance to assigning employees to branches in Hokkaido. In South Korea, the impact of this news is significant as a considerable number of travelers visit Hokkaido. In China, the government has already issued warnings against traveling to Japan, and the number of canceled group tours is increasing. Although worsening diplomatic relations between China and Japan are a factor, analysis suggests that concerns for the safety of their citizens are leading the Chinese government to take the earthquake threat seriously.

In July last year, the Japanese government also issued a warning alert about the possibility of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough area along the southern coastal region. Such alerts have continued to be issued periodically, causing anxiety across Japanese society to steadily grow. Japan has experienced several devastating major earthquakes in its history, including the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. While people may have become accustomed to smaller, everyday earthquakes, there are even estimates that a major earthquake near Tokyo could result in millions of deaths, fueling a fear of major earthquakes that is on a completely different level from ordinary seismic events.

This raises the question: is more precise earthquake forecasting possible? Unlike weather forecasts, technology that can specify the exact date and time of an earthquake does not yet exist. The fundamental reason that earthquake prediction is much more difficult than weather forecasting is the lack of precise understanding of underground structures. While the depth of the Earth's crust is estimated to be around 30 kilometers, the deepest drilling by humans has only reached about 10 kilometers. This means that only about one-third of the crust has been explored, with the rest remaining unknown territory.

As a result, current technology cannot predict how seismic waves will pass through different rock types, or whether moderate earthquakes might intensify into major ones or weaken. In the case of typhoons or rain clouds, atmospheric pressure patterns can be used to forecast movement and timing to some extent, but such pattern analysis does not apply to seismic waves. In the scientific community, there is even talk that being able to forecast an earthquake just one hour in advance-not to mention a day-would dramatically reduce casualties. It is said that developing technology capable of accurately forecasting earthquakes in advance would be Nobel Prize-worthy, underlining the magnitude of the challenge.

A Major Earthquake in Japan Would Impact Korea...Concerns Over Economic Damage

In South Korea, the impact of this news is significant as many travelers visit Hokkaido. The Chinese government has already issued warnings about traveling to Japan, and there is a growing number of cases where group tours are being canceled. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

The possibility of a major earthquake in Japan is not a distant issue for South Korea. Physically, if a tsunami were to occur along Japan's eastern coast, it could impact some areas of Korea's east coast. In the Gyeongsang region, there are concerns that seismic activity could be transmitted through the seabed, as the area is connected to the Japanese archipelago by undersea crustal structures, potentially triggering a chain reaction of earthquakes.

In fact, the magnitude 5.8 earthquake that struck Gyeongju in 2016 was the largest ever recorded by the Korea Meteorological Administration and resulted in property damage exceeding 10 billion won. Some academics have suggested that this earthquake may have been linked to seismic activity originating in Japan. It is also noteworthy that historical records from the Joseon Dynasty show that many major earthquakes in Korea occurred after large earthquakes in Japan.

The economic impact cannot be ignored either. Japan is one of South Korea's four largest trading partners, and a significant portion of advanced materials, including semiconductors, is imported from Japan. During the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the power grid was severely damaged, causing major disruption for domestic companies in Korea that relied on Japanese advanced materials. Currently, most of Japan's nuclear power plants and major factories are concentrated along the eastern coast, raising concerns that a tsunami could lead to a repeat of the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Experts point out that, regardless of the current state of Korea-Japan relations or public sentiment, the two countries need to begin discussing practical cooperation to prepare for a major earthquake. When it comes to natural disasters, borders do not exist. A major earthquake in Japan is no longer just Japan's problem alone.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.