[Weekend Money] SpaceX Valuation Ahead of IPO 2.5 Times That of Samsung Electronics

KB Securities: "Valuation at USD 2.1 Trillion"

Starship Valued at USD 1.53 Trillion

Would Enter S&P 500 Top 9 Upon Listing

There is an analysis suggesting that the appropriate market capitalization of SpaceX, Elon Musk's aerospace company, which is scheduled to go public this June, will exceed 3,000 trillion won. This figure is 2.5 times greater than the recent market capitalization of Samsung Electronics, which stands at 1,250 trillion won.

KB Securities stated this in its recent report, "SpaceX: Strong Momentum Expected After IPO." According to KB Securities researchers Jeon Woojae, Lee Changmin, and Song Yoonjoo, "SpaceX is expected to be granted a premium for securing key space orbits and lunar terrain and resources, and the sector's momentum is likely to remain strong with continued stock price increases after listing." KB Securities evaluated SpaceX's fair value in 2030 at USD 3.6 trillion. Specifically, the breakdown is USD 410 billion for xAI, USD 1.53 trillion for Starship, USD 940 billion for Starlink, and USD 660 billion for the space data center. Based on this, the appropriate market capitalization at the end of this year is estimated to be USD 2.1 trillion.

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"SpaceX to Enjoy Space Monopoly Premium"

KB Securities highlighted that SpaceX's spacecraft business is essentially a monopoly. In addition, satellites must be replaced every five years, resulting in permanent revenue and profit growth. Another strength cited in SpaceX's valuation is that Starlink has attracted 11 million subscribers in just four years. However, KB Securities analyzed that when it comes to the space artificial intelligence (AI) data center, achieving the annual 100GW capacity target proposed by Elon Musk appears difficult in the short term due to the weight limitations of satellites. Nevertheless, even if only 11% of this goal is met by the end of 2030, KB Securities forecasts that sales in 2030 could reach USD 110.3 billion, implying that medium-term revenue could grow fortyfold.

The most important value emphasized is the premium from monopolizing space. KB Securities stated, "Because there are virtually no competitors, SpaceX can secure the best locations in space. In particular, if it secures the twilight orbit, which can absorb sunlight 24 hours a day, or the lunar south polar region, which has potential water resources, SpaceX will be able to utilize space more efficiently than latecomers and, in the very long term, could monopolize lunar minerals." According to the report, it is estimated that more than one million tons of helium-3, a next-generation high-value nuclear fusion fuel, are buried on the lunar surface. Helium-3, an extremely rare resource, is known to be worth around USD 20 million per kilogram. In addition, the moon is rich in platinum, palladium, and rare earth elements, as well as aluminum, titanium, and iron needed to build space bases and solar power facilities, making the plan to construct lunar bases using Tesla Optimus robots feasible.

SpaceX Would Rank 9th in S&P Upon Listing

Even if SpaceX is listed at just USD 1.5 trillion, it would rank 9th in the S&P 500. Its market share would be 2.1% of the entire U.S. market (USD 70 trillion), 2.5% of the S&P 500 (USD 60 trillion), and 6% of the Nasdaq 100 (USD 25 trillion).

The anticipated size of SpaceX's new stock issuance is USD 50 billion. KB Securities analyzed that the capital raised would be sufficient for current operations. KB Securities added, "SpaceX already owns the cash-cow Starlink business, and USD 50 billion would be enough to manufacture 500 to 1,000 units of the latest Starship V3 model."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.