"Negative Employment Impact from AI Remains Limited"
National Assembly Budget Office Report on Generative AI and Youth Employment
However, Youth Employment Declines in Some Fields, Such as Accounting and Writing
With the introduction of generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology, not only jobs but also the way people work are undergoing rapid changes. Will AI replace human jobs, or will it remain a tool to make work more efficient, like past technologies?
On February 28, the National Assembly Budget Office released a report titled "Status of Occupations Highly Exposed to Generative AI and Recent Youth Employment," analyzing the impact of AI on employment.
Kyungrok Chun, economic analyst, stated in the report, "Most studies suggest that, considering the effects of past automation technologies, the negative impact of AI on total employment is expected to be limited." He added, "Generative AI is similar to past automation technologies in that it can replace part of human labor with machines." Even if some jobs disappear, related jobs may increase, leading to growth in related industries, or productivity improvements may create new jobs in other sectors.
However, this effect does not apply equally to all jobs. In some cases, human labor can be replaced, whereas in others, collaboration with AI can improve the value and productivity of certain professions. Moreover, even within the same occupation, the impact may differ depending on the specific role.
The Impact of AI Varies Depending on Job Characteristics
With the recent dramatic advancement of AI technology, there have been many analyses suggesting that, for entry-level positions-often held by young people-AI could potentially replace jobs. In fact, domestic and international studies have indicated that in industries highly exposed to AI, youth employment has decreased, while employment among those in their 50s has increased. These analyses typically describe this as a "seniority-biased technological change," meaning that the work of junior employees is automated while the work of senior employees is augmented. For example, according to reports from the Bank of Korea and others, routine and textbook-based knowledge work is easily replaced, but tasks requiring tacit knowledge based on seniority, as well as teamwork, organizational management, and interpersonal skills, are areas where AI can provide support rather than replacement.
In this context, Analyst Chun calculated the generative AI exposure levels for different occupations in Korea by utilizing the "Exposure of Occupations to Generative AI" report released by the International Labour Organization (ILO), and examined the impact of high-exposure occupations on employment.
The report's analysis states, "Since the launch of ChatGPT, employment for both youth and middle-aged workers in high-exposure occupations has not decreased compared to low-exposure occupations," and "There is no evidence so far that generative AI has had a negative impact on job postings or youth hiring in high-exposure occupations." In other words, there are no clear trends indicating that jobs significantly affected by AI have declined solely due to its adoption. In particular, Analyst Chun noted, "For professionals, even entry-level employees are experiencing the influence of generative AI more as augmentation than automation." Thus, it is 'not yet' accurate to say that AI is taking away professional jobs.
However, this is from an aggregate perspective, and the impact differs by occupational group. In certain fields-such as accounting and bookkeeping, customer service and monitoring, writers, and journalism-youth employment has decreased. Especially for writer and journalism professionals, Analyst Chun explained, "Employment has declined, which may be because these jobs are in more direct competition with the text generation capabilities of large language models."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
