[Weekend Money] Will AI Really Take My Job?

"Growth Without Consumption Due to AI" vs "Humans Remain in Control"
iM Securities: "Creative Destruction Will Drive Efficiency Gains"

As fears stemming from artificial intelligence (AI) continue to affect global financial markets, iM Securities has stated that it is necessary to pay attention to growth industries from the perspective of creative destruction.

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The rapid growth of the AI industry has sparked ongoing debates about the restructuring of industries and labor markets. The Citrini Report, which warned of a ‘Global Intelligence Crisis in 2028,’ introduced the concept of ‘ghost Gross Domestic Product (GDP)’ as its core idea. It argues that, although advancements in AI will contribute to productivity gains and lead to high single-digit GDP growth rates, this growth will not translate into increased consumption, resulting in a distorted economic structure.

The report states that automation of work in coding, analytics, legal, and financial fields-driven by the growth of the AI industry-will lead to increased layoffs among white-collar workers, resulting in growth without corresponding consumption. This, in turn, will lead to deteriorating corporate earnings, prompting companies to further expand AI investment to reduce labor costs and thus creating a vicious cycle.

Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said, “We may be entering a period of structural transition where employers potentially do not need as many workers as before,” adding, “If we are experiencing structural changes due to the widespread adoption of AI in businesses, rather than trying to artificially lower the unemployment rate through interest rate cuts, we need to pay attention to that reality.” He suggested that central banks’ monetary policy could face significant challenges in the AI era.

On the other hand, there are claims that such fears are overblown. Christopher Waller, Governor of the Federal Reserve System, countered that concerns about AI adoption triggering large-scale unemployment are excessive. He said, “AI is a tool that we can use. We will use it, we will control it, and we will manage its risks.” He added, “That’s what we have always done.”

While acknowledging the anxiety caused by the growth of the AI industry, he predicted, “Ultimately, people will find ways to use this tool to improve our lives, make us more productive and more efficient, and allow us to have more time to do other things.”

Park Sanghyun, researcher at iM Securities, commented on the ongoing debate over AI-induced fears, stating, “Rather than viewing the growth of the AI industry as mere destruction (fear), we should approach it from the perspective of creative destruction and enjoy the present.” Creative destruction, a concept proposed by economist Schumpeter, refers to the phenomenon where technological innovation and business models destroy and replace outdated industries, technologies, and companies, thereby driving economic development. This enhances efficiency and improves overall market productivity.

Park noted, “Historically, with technological innovation or development, new growth industries have always emerged, while existing core or traditional businesses have declined into sunset industries.” He cited examples such as the decline of feature phone maker Motorola with the advent of the iPhone, the fall of portal giant Yahoo with the rise of Google, and the weakening of legacy media due to the emergence of Netflix and YouTube.

He went on to predict that even if the AI-induced fear scenario materializes, corporate or national AI investments will be pursued even more aggressively.

He emphasized, “Ultimately, rather than focusing on the destructive aspects of AI, it is necessary to watch for the emergence of growth industries from the perspective of creative destruction.” He continued, “After the rise of companies like FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google), FANG Plus, and the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta), now is the time to pay close attention to which companies or industries will lead the next cycle of AI growth and evolution.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.