[Global Focus] Xi Jinping Tightens Military Discipline and Emphasizes Anti-Corruption Ahead of the Two Sessions

Xi Pursues Fourth Term and Extended Rule
Two Sessions Set for Next Month; Key Issue Is Maintaining 5% Growth
A Stage to Test Xi's Political and Economic Leadership

Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the "2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit" held in Gyeongju last October. The Chinese government will unveil its five-year blueprint at the annual largest political event, the Two Sessions, starting on March 4. Yonhap News Agency

"President Xi Jinping of China will need to prove at this year's Two Sessions that a 5% economic growth rate is achievable, even in the face of tariff shocks originating from the United States."

Jeon Byungseo, Director of the China Finance and Economy Research Institute and a renowned China expert in Korea, made this statement on the 28th, ahead of the Two Sessions opening on March 4. The Two Sessions, China's largest annual political event, refers to the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). As attention focuses on whether the annual growth target, which has recently been maintained at "around 5%," will be lowered, the government is also set to unveil its five-year "economic blueprint." Director Jeon highlighted, "This year marks the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), making it a year when China's economic performance will be evaluated."

In addition, President Xi's political leadership will also come under scrutiny. The years 2025-2026 are just over a year before the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party, where the question of Xi's potential fourth term will be determined. For Xi, it is necessary to demonstrate "political stability" as a move to pave the way for another term. Director Jeon added, "This will serve as an opportunity to assess the foundation of Xi's power following his third term."

Will China Set an "Around 5%" Economic Growth Target?

The Two Sessions, held each year in early March for about a week, consist of the NPC-comparable to Korea's National Assembly-and the CPPCC, a policy advisory body. As all major policies for the year, including the government's annual economic management direction, annual GDP growth target, and defense budget, are determined at the Two Sessions, the international community pays close attention.

The NPC is commonly referred to as the "highlight" of the Two Sessions. On the opening day of the NPC, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council is expected to announce the annual GDP growth target during the government work report, as in previous years. China has set an annual growth target of around 5% for the past three consecutive years, with actual growth rates recorded at 5.4%, 5.0%, and 5.0% respectively. This year, the government is expected to either maintain the target at "around 5%" or explicitly lower the bottom range to "4.5-5%."

Although the gap between the two figures appears narrow, there is a significant substantive difference. Director Jeon explained, "If a target similar to previous years is announced, it can be interpreted as a display of confidence in the economy. However, if the range of 4.5-5% is presented, it would mean an official acknowledgment of downside risks such as the US-China trade conflict and sluggish domestic demand." He emphasized that the issue is not a simple numerical gap, but rather "the difference between a signal of confidence and a shift to crisis management mode." He further noted, "In China, the growth target is not merely an economic indicator but a symbol of political authority and legitimacy, so every expression carries political implications."

The international community's expectations are lower than those within China. International organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and Asian Development Bank (ADB) have forecast growth at around 4.3-4.5%. Global investment bank Goldman Sachs projected a slightly higher 4.8%.

This year's Two Sessions also serve as an official review of whether the "innovation and self-reliance" goals set out in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), which began in 2021, have been achieved. It is a formal evaluation of President Xi's economic policy track record. However, the economy is currently facing "triple pressures": structural deflationary forces, slowing exports, and delayed domestic demand recovery. The real estate slump is dragging down household assets and consumer sentiment, while the US-China tariff conflict is increasing export uncertainty.

Despite achieving a 5% growth rate last year, private investment and consumer confidence indicators remained sluggish, showing characteristics of a "K-shaped recovery." The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stayed in the 0% or negative range throughout the year. The real estate market remains frozen with no signs of thawing. According to a report by the South China Morning Post (SCMP) at the beginning of the year, the proportion of real estate in China's economy peaked at 25-30% in 2021 but has shrunk to around 12% as of 2024. The decline in real estate prices, a core household asset, is cited as a factor weakening domestic consumption sentiment.

Five-Year Plan Focuses on Technological Self-Reliance and Domestic Demand-Driven Growth

This year is also noteworthy as it marks the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), China's new mid-to-long-term economic blueprint. At this event, a draft proposal presented at the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee last October will be reviewed and finalized. President Xi has emphasized that the five-year plan to be established this year is an intermediate phase, linking the direction set at the 20th Party Congress in 2022 with the long-term goal of basically achieving "socialist modernization" by 2035.

The key pillars are "technological self-reliance" and "domestic demand-driven economic development." Previously, in an October press conference, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China stated, "We will preemptively deploy future industries and foster new drivers of economic growth such as quantum technology, embodied intelligence (technology enabling robots to interact with real-world environments through AI), hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, and sixth-generation (6G) mobile communications."

Purges Continue... Military Oversight System Likely to Be Strengthened

Vice Chairman Zhang Yusha (left) and Committee Member Liu Jianli, known to have been purged in China. Photo by EPA Yonhap News

Changes in the power structure are also revealed through the Two Sessions. Neil Thomas, a specialist in Chinese politics at the China Analysis Center of the Asia Society, an Asia-focused think tank, noted in a recent report, "At the fourth plenary session last October, only 315 out of 376 Central Committee members (83.8%) attended-a remarkably low attendance rate-indicating a series of purges."

This year, attention is focused on the follow-up measures concerning Zhang Yusha, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party, and Committee Member Liu Jianli, who were reportedly purged earlier this year for "serious violations of discipline and law." Both were dismissed from their posts on the Central Military Commission and as NPC deputies in the latter half of last year, and are believed to be under Party disciplinary investigation. Zhang Yusha, a long-time close aide of President Xi, was implicated in military procurement corruption, while Liu Jianli was embroiled in allegations of corruption related to equipment and weapons procurement.

President Xi's crackdown did not stop there but extended to core figures in the military. According to Xinhua News Agency, Ming Pao, and other local media on the 27th, five generals (full generals), one lieutenant general, and three major generals of the People's Liberation Army have been stripped of their NPC delegate status.

Director Jeon explained that the loss of Party membership and subsequent criminal prosecution is "a typical course of the anti-corruption campaign." For this reason, it is highly likely that this year's Two Sessions will see institutional reforms to strengthen military oversight. There is also speculation that President Xi will use this event to test the loyalty of his newly organized power lineup.

U.S. Message in Focus Ahead of Trump's Late-March Visit to China

With U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to China scheduled for late March, attention is also focused on the message to the United States. The White House recently announced that President Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2 for a summit meeting with President Xi. This marks the first visit by a sitting U.S. president to China in about eight years and five months, since President Trump's first term in November 2017.

The Two Sessions are also expected to include a statement of position on Taiwan. China has consistently maintained its claim that Taiwan is an inseparable part of its territory under the "One China" principle. The Communist Party is also reported to have begun educating its cadres on the theme of "correct views on achievements" ahead of the Two Sessions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.