Final Decision on Next Year’s Medical School Quotas Due This Week...Medical Community Still Opposed

At the HMPDC meeting on the 10th, an increase of 3,662 to 4,200 students over five years is likely
If no consensus is reached, a vote is possible... KMA hints at strong response

With the decision on the scale of medical school enrollment expansion for the 2027 academic year scheduled for this week, tensions in the medical community are rising as it continues to oppose the increase.

According to the medical community on the 9th, the Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee (HMPDC) of the Ministry of Health and Welfare will hold its 7th meeting on the 10th to discuss the size of the increase in medical school enrollment quotas for the 2027-2031 academic years. The committee had initially aimed to reach a conclusion at its 6th meeting on the 6th, but as the members failed to reach a consensus, it decided to convene one more meeting.

At the 6th meeting, the committee only managed to narrow opinions to determining the expansion scale based mainly on three models out of 12, which had been drawn by combining the supply-and-demand scenarios presented late last year by the Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee.

According to these estimates, the projected shortage of physicians in 2037 is between 4,262 and 4,800. After excluding 600 doctors expected to be produced by future public medical schools and newly established medical schools, the scope under discussion is reduced to 3,662 to 4,200. If this is simply divided equally over five years, an annual increase of roughly 732 to 840 students would be required.

At the previous HMPDC meeting, members reportedly reached a consensus on the need to set an upper limit on the expansion so as not to place an excessive burden on the educational field, and on the need to determine the expansion scale in consideration of the roles of national universities and small medical schools.

However, it has not yet been decided where exactly to set this upper limit, whether to apply an even increase in enrollment over the 2027-2031 academic years, or whether to first increase enrollment within the capacity that the educational field can accommodate and then gradually expand the scale over time. Some members also argued that the period for adjusting enrollment quotas should be set longer to improve universities' preparedness and predictability.

The government’s position is that, taking into account the college admission schedule, it must reach a conclusion on the expansion scale within this week. An official from the Ministry of Health and Welfare said, "It is most desirable for the HMPDC to reach a consensus, but we cannot keep postponing the meeting," adding, "If no consensus is reached, we should, if at all possible, still make a decision even if it requires a vote."

The Korean Medical Association continues to oppose the expansion, arguing that the estimation results themselves lack scientific basis and that the government is being driven by deadlines into making a hasty decision. At the same time, as it has been less than half a year since the confusion in the medical field caused by conflict between the government and doctors was resolved, the association also appears to be mindful of public opinion.

Previously, Korean Medical Association spokesperson Kim Sunggeun said, "Internally, there are voices among members calling for a general strike, but there are also opinions that we should be cautious," adding, "If the HMPDC decides on a figure that we cannot accept, the association may take action such as holding a large-scale rally outside the National Assembly."

Meanwhile, once the Ministry of Health and Welfare finalizes the scale of medical school expansion this week, it will immediately proceed with allocating quotas to 32 universities outside Seoul. After revising their school regulations to adjust enrollment quotas, universities must submit their revised 2027 academic year admissions figures to the Korean Council for University Education by the end of April, and by the end of May they must announce their 2027 college admission early decision guidelines reflecting all these changes.