BTS Comeback Draws Global Attention... Securities Firms Raise HYBE Target Prices Across the Board

Estimated 4.75 Million Attendees for World Tour
Projected to Surpass Taylor Swift as the World's Largest
Rapid Growth of Newcomers Like KATSEYE

Yonhap News

With news of BTS's full-group comeback and a world tour of unprecedented scale, securities firms are collectively raising their expectations for HYBE.

According to financial information provider FnGuide on January 28, the average target stock price for HYBE, as analyzed by securities firms, is 424,700 won. Notably, all 11 securities firms that recently published reports have raised their target prices for HYBE compared to previous estimates.

The main reason securities firms are focusing on HYBE is BTS's full-group return. BTS is set to release a new album, "ARIRANG," on March 20, and will kick off a world tour with a concert in Korea on April 9, planning to hold more than 79 shows through the first quarter of next year. Including additional dates in Japan and the Middle East scheduled for 2027, the tour is expected to expand to as many as 95 shows.

If each world tour concert draws an estimated 50,000 attendees, the total audience is projected to reach approximately 4.75 million. This matches the unprecedented scale of Coldplay's 2023 global tour (3.5 million attendees, approximately 670 billion won) and Taylor Swift's 2023 tour (4.6 million attendees, about 1.4 trillion won).

This overwhelming tour scale is expected to lead to explosive earnings growth. The securities industry estimates that ticket sales from the BTS world tour alone will reach about 940 billion won this year. When adding revenue from album and digital music sales, merchandise, and secondary licensing, total revenue generated from BTS’s single intellectual property (IP) is expected to exceed 1.6 trillion won. Consequently, HYBE’s consolidated operating profit for this year is projected to surpass 500 billion won, representing nearly 1,000% growth compared to the previous year.

Not only BTS, but also new groups expected to succeed BTS are growing at a pace that exceeds expectations. The US-based girl group KATSEYE, for example, placed two songs in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 20 just a year and a half after debuting, demonstrating a faster growth trajectory than Blackpink.

Additionally, Cortis, which debuted last year, has surpassed cumulative album sales of 1.6 million, setting the highest sales record among rookie groups to date. HYBE’s multi-label system, which does not rely on a single IP, is being recognized as increasingly sophisticated.

Lee Gihun, a researcher at Hana Securities, stated, "In the case of a successful debut, album sales per release are assumed to double after two years, but currently, only BTS and Stray Kids have reached 3 million units. The speed at which Cortis is selling albums is extraordinary, and the group is highly likely to become the next major act following Big Bang, BTS, and Stray Kids."

However, fourth-quarter results last year are expected to show a temporary slowdown due to one-off costs, such as expenses related to the debut of new groups and restructuring of the US subsidiary. Experts view this as the "final growing pains" before further growth.

Kim Minyoung, a researcher at Meritz Securities, analyzed, "With one-off costs being removed from the fourth quarter of last year, the leverage effect of BTS will begin in earnest. If additional tour dates in Asia and the Middle East are announced and cost stabilization is confirmed, there is potential for further upward revision of performance forecasts."