Jung Wonoh Ranks First on US Prediction Market: "Strength Lies in Lack of Negative Image"

Polymarket Predicts Seoul Mayoral Election Odds
Jung Wonoh at 63%, Oh Sehoon at 26%
Momentum Shift After President Lee’s Public Praise

Jung Wonoh, the head of Seoul’s Seongdong District and a likely candidate for Seoul mayor from the Democratic Party of Korea, has maintained the top spot in winning probability on the US-based blockchain prediction market Polymarket since mid-December last year.

According to the Polymarket website as of the morning of January 21, Jung’s probability of winning was 63%, more than twice that of incumbent Seoul Mayor Oh Sehoon, who stood at 26%. They were followed by Na Kyungwon, a lawmaker from the People Power Party, at 9%, and Park Joomin, a Democratic Party lawmaker, at 3%. As of this morning, the total amount bet was $513,235 (approximately 759.48 million KRW).

On this betting site, Jung overtook Mayor Oh as of December 15. It appears that President Lee Jaemyung’s public praise of Jung’s administration on his social media had an impact.

On December 8, President Lee posted a news article on his X (formerly Twitter) account reporting that Seongdong District recorded a 92.9% satisfaction rate in a district administration survey of residents. He commented, “It seems that Chief Jung is indeed very good at his job. My own satisfaction rate as mayor of Seongnam was quite high, but it looks like I can’t even compare.”

Analysts say that President Lee’s praise helped to partially resolve Jung’s weakness of low name recognition.

A representative from Jung’s camp explained, “Even when his name recognition was low, his support rate was relatively high, so we believed that as his recognition increased, his support would naturally follow. It seems that after the president’s mention, the issue of low name recognition was resolved, and his approval rating has risen significantly.”

The representative added about Polymarket, “There are still variables such as future party primary rules, but while it may look like a simple betting site at first glance, we view it as meaningful because it reflects the collective intelligence of many participants and evaluates only the probability of winning, without political bias.”

Experts cited Jung’s lack of negative public image compared to incumbent lawmakers and established politicians as a strength.

Choi Byungchun, head of the New Growth Research Institute, evaluated that Jung holds an advantage over Mayor Oh compared to other Democratic Party incumbents. Choi said, “Mayor Oh has a negative image of being ‘old’ and engaging in showy administration, whereas Jung has a fresh and competent image.” He added, “Other incumbent lawmakers tend to carry the negative image associated with the Democratic Party due to issues like the Legislation and Judiciary Committee, but Jung does not.”

Political commentator Park Sangbyung also said, “People don’t know much about Chief Jung, so he doesn’t have a negative image. He has freshness and novelty, which makes him a strong contender against Mayor Oh. However, it’s uncertain whether he can maintain this advantage if the People Power Party nominates another candidate with broader centrist appeal.”

However, there is a perspective that Jung’s current approval rating reflects support for the Lee Jaemyung administration. Choi noted, “At present, the People Power Party’s internal divisions are resulting in a support rate even lower than usual for conservatives. Going forward, how Jung conducts his campaign will be crucial.”

Meanwhile, Jung is showing a close race with Mayor Oh in recent polls. According to a Seoul mayoral poll conducted by Metavoice for JTBC on December 29-30 among 800 eligible voters residing in Seoul (100% wireless phone interviews, 95% confidence level, ±3.5%p margin of error), Jung received 39% and Mayor Oh 38% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, indicating a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error. (For details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.)