Incumbent Holds Advantage as Opposition Faces Fierce Internal Competition
Ruling Party Figures Like Kwon Oeul and Oh Junggi Weigh Candidacies
In the history of local elections, the position of Governor of North Gyeongsang Province has always been dominated by conservative candidates. As the party nomination is widely considered equivalent to winning the election, competition within the party for the nomination has been fiercer than the general election itself. In this election as well, negative campaigning among People Power Party candidates is intensifying.
Historical Performance
Since the introduction of the local autonomy system in 1995, candidates from conservative parties have won all eight elections. In the first local election, former Governor Lee Uigeun, running as a Democratic Liberal Party candidate, was elected with 37.94% of the vote. He went on to win the second and third elections as well, securing 71.96% and 85.49% of the votes, respectively, achieving three consecutive terms.
In the fourth local election, former Gumi Mayor Kim Kwan-yong ran as the Grand National Party candidate and was elected. Kim Kwan-yong also won the fifth and sixth elections consecutively, with 75.36% and 77.73% of the votes, respectively. Governor Lee Cheolwoo was elected in the seventh and eighth elections with 52.11% and 77.95% of the votes, respectively.
Who Are the Potential Candidates?
Within the People Power Party, Governor Lee has officially announced his bid for a third term. Lee Kangdeok, Mayor of Pohang in North Gyeongsang Province, has also declared his candidacy. Former Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Choi Kyunghwan and Supreme Council member Kim Jaewon, a former three-term lawmaker from North Gyeongsang Province, have also confirmed their intentions to run. Among incumbent lawmakers, Kim Seokki, Kim Jeongjae, Song Eonseok, Lee Manhee, and Lim Ija are being mentioned as potential candidates.
On the ruling party side, there is no clear frontrunner. Lim Mi-ae, the head of the Democratic Party’s North Gyeongsang Provincial Committee, former Blue House Senior Administrative Officer Oh Junggi, and Lee Youngsoo, Secretary for Agriculture and Livestock at the Presidential Office, are being discussed as possible candidates. Kwon Oeul, Minister of Patriots and Veterans Affairs and a native of Andong, North Gyeongsang Province, announced during last year’s National Assembly audit that he would not run.
Polling Trends
According to a recent poll (Realmeter-TBC), Governor Lee ranked first with 20.7%. Supreme Council member Kim Jaewon recorded 15.6%, and former Deputy Prime Minister Choi Kyunghwan received 11.9%. They were followed by Minister Kwon Oeul at 11.4%, Secretary Lee Youngsoo at 6.9%, and former Senior Administrative Officer Oh Junggi at 5.6%. In terms of party support, the People Power Party led with 52.7%, more than double the Democratic Party’s 25.8%.
Characteristics of the North Gyeongsang Election
North Gyeongsang Province is considered the region with the strongest conservative base in the country. While competition among People Power Party candidates is intensifying, the ruling party has yet to show any significant movement.
With the People Power Party expected to dominate the North Gyeongsang gubernatorial election, variables such as post-martial law political alignments, factional conflicts, and primary rules within the party’s nomination process are likely to play a significant role.
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