Europe's Amundi: "Era of Power, Asset Diversification Essential"

"2026 Geopolitical Outlook" Released
Geopolitical Risks at Record Highs, Including Aggressive U.S. Interventionism
Defense and AI Sectors Vital for National Survival Expected to Grow; Dollar's Dominance to Weaken

NH-Amundi Asset Management announced on January 19 that Amundi, its second-largest shareholder and the leading asset management company in Europe, has released its "2026 Geopolitical Outlook" report.

In the report, Amundi defines 2026 as a year dominated by the "logic of power." The company analyzed that the number of global conflicts is at its highest since World War II, with countries attempting to reshape the international order to their own advantage, driving geopolitical risks to their peak.

The report identified the competition among major powers over new routes and resources opened by the melting Arctic ice as a key driver intensifying these crises.

By country, the report expects the United States to strengthen its interventionist foreign policy, unhesitatingly using military force to maximize national interests. The Trump administration has already employed military means to attempt regime change in Venezuela and revealed ambitions to secure territory in Greenland.

For Europe, the report forecasts a painful year of transition toward "security autonomy." With the Russia-Ukraine war likely to persist and the United States pressing its allies for self-reliance, European countries are expected to significantly increase defense spending and undergo political transformation.

Regarding China, the report predicts that while China will demonstrate its strength, it will maintain a tense state of mutual interests with the United States, avoiding a complete decoupling due to their interdependence. China recognizes that the exchange between political control and economic prosperity depends on global trade flows, while the United States is aware of its high dependence on China for rare earth resources.

In terms of asset allocation, the report emphasizes the need for diversification to respond to crises, highlighting the importance of safe assets and strategic sectors. Regardless of national debt levels, AI and defense are expected to remain top government spending priorities and continue robust growth. In the currency sector, the emergence of alternative currency portfolios is expected to weaken the dominance of the dollar, while gold, as a direct beneficiary of geopolitical tensions, is likely to see increased preference.

Anna Rosenberg, Head of Geopolitics at Amundi, stated, "In 2026, as countries seek to reshape reality to their advantage, only power and strength will prevail," adding, "We must strengthen crisis resilience by focusing on AI and defense sectors, which are vital to national survival, as well as safe assets such as gold."