[June 3 Local Elections] ⑪ Daegu Mayoral Race Crowded with People Power Party Incumbents... Spotlight on Kim Bu-gyeom's Decision

Five Incumbent Lawmakers from People Power Party Expected to Run
Senior Lawmakers Including Joo Hoeyoung and Choo Kyungho Join the Race
If Kim Bugyeom Runs, Daegu Could Become the Nation’s Most Competitive Battleground

Daegu, often referred to as a stronghold of conservative politics, is a region without an "incumbency premium" in the 9th nationwide local elections. With the resignation of former Mayor Hong Joonpyo, the Daegu mayoral seat is now open, and around five incumbent lawmakers from the People Power Party have either declared their candidacy or are considering running. The Democratic Party is also aiming to produce its first Daegu mayor under the Lee Jaemyung administration, making the competition expected to be intense.

What are the historical results?

Since the introduction of the local self-government system, all eight previous elections have been won by conservative candidates. Former Mayor Moon Heegap won the first direct mayoral election in Daegu as an independent and was re-elected for the second term as a candidate of the Grand National Party. Former Mayor Cho Haenyoung won the third-term election as a Grand National Party candidate. Former Mayor Kim Bumil was elected as the Grand National Party candidate for the fourth and fifth terms. Former Mayor Kwon Youngjin won the sixth and seventh terms as a candidate of the Saenuri Party and Liberty Korea Party, respectively. Former Mayor Hong Joonpyo was the winner of the eighth direct mayoral election in Daegu. While the party names of the winners have changed, they are all predecessors of the current People Power Party.

Who are being discussed as candidates?

Within the People Power Party, five incumbent lawmakers representing Daegu constituencies are preparing to run. Lawmakers Choo Kyungho (Dalseong-gun) and Choi Eunseok (Dong-gu, Gunwi-gun Gap) have already announced their candidacies (in order of declaration). The party's most senior lawmaker, Joo Hoeyoung (Suseong-gap), who is serving his sixth term, will officially announce his candidacy at the People Power Party Daegu City Chapter on January 25. Lawmakers Yoon Jaeok (Dalseo-eul) and Yoo Youngha (Dalseo-gap) are also considered potential candidates.

In the Democratic Party, former lawmaker Hong Uirak, who previously served as Daegu's Deputy Mayor for Economic Affairs, has virtually declared his candidacy. Former Supreme Council member Kang Mingu is also being mentioned. The biggest variable is whether former Prime Minister Kim Bu-gyeom will run. If a match-up between former Prime Minister Kim and a senior People Power Party lawmaker materializes, it is expected to be a major contest.

What are the trends in opinion polls?

According to a recent poll (Realmeter-TBC), former Prime Minister Kim Bu-gyeom ranked first with 22.1%. He was followed by lawmaker Choo Kyungho with 16.8%, lawmaker Joo Hoeyoung with 11.8%, former Supreme Council member Kang Mingu with 6.5%, and former lawmaker Hong Uirak with 6.4%. Party support stood at 49% for the People Power Party and 28.3% for the Democratic Party, showing a significant gap.

What are the characteristics of the Daegu election?

In the Daegu mayoral election, the competition for party nominations is fiercer than the main election itself. This is because the equation "People Power Party nomination equals election victory" has been repeatedly established. The repeated dominance of a particular party has sometimes led to lower voter turnout. In the 8th local elections in 2022, Daegu's voter turnout was 43.2%, the second lowest in the country after Gwangju (37.7%).

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- Realmeter (commissioned by TBC, surveyed men and women aged 18 and above residing in Daegu, conducted December 29-30 last year, wireless ARS method, sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). *For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.