[June 3 Local Elections] ⑪ Daegu Mayoral Race Crowded with People Power Party Incumbents... Spotlight on Kim Bu-gyeom's Decision

Five Incumbent Lawmakers from People Power Party Expected to Run
Senior Lawmakers Including Joo Hoeyoung and Choo Kyungho Join the Race
If Kim Bugyeom Runs, Daegu Could Become the Nation’s Most Competitive Battleground

Daegu, often referred to as a stronghold of conservative politics, is a region without an "incumbent premium" in the 9th nationwide local elections. With former Mayor Hong Junpyo having resigned, the Daegu mayoral seat is now open, and around five incumbent lawmakers from the People Power Party have either declared their candidacy or are considering running. The Democratic Party is also aiming to produce its first Daegu mayor under the Lee Jaemyung administration, setting the stage for fierce competition.

Past Election Results

Since the introduction of the local autonomy system, all eight previous elections have been won by conservative candidates. Former Mayor Moon Heegap ran as an independent in the first direct mayoral election and won, and then was elected as a Grand National Party candidate for his second term. Former Mayor Cho Haenyeong was elected as a Grand National Party candidate in the third term. Former Mayor Kim Beomil won both the fourth and fifth terms as a Grand National Party candidate. Former Mayor Kwon Youngjin won the sixth and seventh terms as a Saenuri Party and Liberty Korea Party candidate, respectively. Former Mayor Hong Junpyo was the winner of the eighth term. Although the winners' party names have changed over time, they have all been predecessors of the People Power Party.

Who Are the Potential Candidates?

Within the People Power Party, five incumbent lawmakers representing Daegu constituencies are preparing to run. Choo Kyungho (Dalseong County) and Choi Eunseok (Dong District and Gunwi County Gap) have already announced their candidacies (in order of announcement). The party's most senior lawmaker, Joo Hoeyoung (Suseong Gap, six-term lawmaker), will officially declare his candidacy at the People Power Party’s Daegu City branch on the 25th. Yoon Jaeok (Dalseo Eul) and Yoo Youngha (Dalseo Gap) are also considered potential candidates.

From the Democratic Party, former lawmaker Hong Uirak, who previously served as Daegu’s Deputy Mayor for Economic Affairs, has effectively declared his candidacy. Former Supreme Council member Kang Mingu is also being mentioned. The biggest variable is whether former Prime Minister Kim Bu-gyeom will run. If Kim and a senior People Power Party lawmaker both enter the race, a major showdown is expected.

Polling Trends

According to a recent poll (Realmeter-TBC), former Prime Minister Kim Bu-gyeom ranked first with 22.1%. He was followed by lawmaker Choo Kyungho at 16.8%, lawmaker Joo Hoeyoung at 11.8%, former Supreme Council member Kang Mingu at 6.5%, and former lawmaker Hong Uirak at 6.4%. Party support stood at 49% for the People Power Party and 28.3% for the Democratic Party, showing a clear gap.

Characteristics of the Daegu Election

In Daegu's mayoral election, the competition for party nominations is fiercer than the general election itself. This is because the equation "People Power Party nomination equals victory" has been repeated. The continued dominance of a particular party has sometimes led to lower voter turnout. In the 2022 8th local elections, Daegu's turnout was 43.2%, the second lowest nationwide after Gwangju (37.7%).

<Polling Details>

- Realmeter (commissioned by TBC, surveyed men and women aged 18 and older residing in Daegu, conducted December 29-30 last year, wireless ARS method, sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). *For more information, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.