[6.3 Local Elections] ⑩ Ulsan, the Shaky Conservative Stronghold... Unified Democratic-Progressive Candidacy Is the Key Variable

Six Out of Seven Wins for Conservatives... Democrats Narrow the Gap in Presidential Race
Ruling Party Candidates: Kim Sangwook, Seong Insu, Song Cheolho, Ahn Jaehyun, Lee Sunho
Kim Dukyum Seeks Re-election for People Power Party... Progressive Party Fields Kim Jonghun

In Ulsan, conservative candidates have won six out of seven previous mayoral elections. However, given that Ulsan recorded the smallest vote margin among the PK (Busan and South Gyeongsang) regions in the last presidential election, it has emerged as one of the key battlegrounds for the 9th nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3.

Performance of Ulsan Mayors Over the Years

Since Ulsan was designated as a metropolitan city in 1997, a Democratic Party-affiliated candidate has won the mayoral election only once out of seven contests. The first mayor, Sim Wangu of the Grand National Party, was also re-elected in the second term. For the third to fifth terms, Park Maengwoo of the Grand National Party served as mayor, followed by Kim Kihyun of the Saenuri Party in the sixth term. The streak of victories by the predecessors of the People Power Party was broken by Song Cheolho of the Democratic Party in the seventh term. As a close aide to former President Moon Jae-in, Song won with 52.88% of the vote. However, in the eighth term, Kim Dukyum, who ran as a unified conservative candidate, secured victory.

Who Are the Potential Candidates?

Within the Democratic Party, Seong Insu, former chair of the Ulsan branch, Ahn Jaehyun, former standing representative of the Roh Moo Hyun Foundation, and former Ulsan Mayor Song Cheolho (in order of declaration) have announced their candidacies. Lee Sunho, former Ulju County head and current secretary for autonomous development at the Blue House, is also a potential contender. Whether Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Sangwook will run is a topic of interest. From the Progressive Party, Kim Jonghun, head of Dong-gu District in Ulsan, recently expressed his intention to run. On the People Power Party side, incumbent Mayor Kim Dukyum is seeking re-election, while the names of lawmakers Kim Kihyun, Park Sungmin, and Seo Beomsoo are also being mentioned.

Latest Poll Trends

According to a recent poll (Busan Ilbo-KSOI), Kim Sangwook of the Democratic Party and Mayor Kim Dukyum of the People Power Party are leading. Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Sangwook (20.2%) and People Power Party Mayor Kim (22.6%) are in a close race within the margin of error. They are followed by Seo Beomsoo (14.4%), Kim Jonghun (10.8%), Lee Sunho (8.5%), and Song Cheolho (7.9%).

What Are the Characteristics of the Ulsan Election?

The biggest variable in the Ulsan mayoral election is whether the Democratic Party and Progressive Party will field a single unified candidate. If Kim Sangwook, a former People Power Party member, wins the Democratic Party primary, he could attract some moderate conservative voters in addition to the existing ruling party base. However, if unification with the Progressive Party fails, the People Power Party is expected to have the upper hand. A People Power Party official stated, "While conservatives are strong in Ulsan, it is not as safe as it used to be," adding, "We have no other choice but to focus on livelihood policies." Reported by Hwang Seoyul.

<Poll Details>

Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI). (Commissioned by Busan Ilbo, surveyed 801 Ulsan residents aged 18 and over from January 2 to 4. Conducted via wireless ARS. Sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.