[New York Diary] One Year into Trump’s Second Term: If I Were a U.S. Citizen

"If I were a U.S. citizen, whom would I have voted for in the 2024 presidential election-Biden or Trump?"

This is a question I still often ask myself, even after two years in the United States. After arriving as a correspondent at the beginning of 2024 to cover the presidential campaign, and then witnessing the first year of Trump's second term in 2025, it has become increasingly difficult to answer this question.

Trade policy, response to the Russia-Ukraine war, attacks on Harvard, undermining the independence of the central bank, and judicial retaliation against political opponents-Trump has unapologetically pushed his agenda through a logic of power. Along the way, I have often been surprised by his authoritarian style of governance and his disregard for institutions and the rule of law. Yet, the answer often leads to an uncomfortable place. If I were a U.S. citizen, I might have ended up voting for Trump.

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Two years may not seem long, but the reality I encountered on the ground in America was enough to prompt such reflection. The streets of Manhattan in New York are filled with refugees and homeless people. By law, New York City must provide free shelters to all refugees, and the astronomical costs are ultimately shouldered by taxpayers.

Other social issues are equally contentious. 'All-gender restrooms' are common throughout Manhattan, and there are many cases where the option to use women-only restrooms is not guaranteed. It is not difficult to find parents who feel uncomfortable with the reality that their fourth-grade children are already being taught that biological sex and gender identity can be different.

In this context, it is hard to dismiss the first year of Trump's second term as merely the result of irrationality. The argument that illegal immigration should be blocked while accepting only legal and necessary workers, the policy of deporting immigrants with criminal records, the opposition to so-called 'woke culture,' and the restriction of transgender men from competing in women's sports-these messages, which Trump has consistently emphasized and implemented, may seem less like radicalism and more like 'common sense' to many voters.

The same applies to economic and trade policies. Streamlining the federal government workforce to increase efficiency, boosting growth through tax cuts and deregulation-these are seen as reasonable solutions by conservative-leaning voters. Voters in the Rust Belt, who lost their jobs and livelihoods due to the collapse of manufacturing, have little choice but to welcome Trump's policies that prioritize tariffs and increased investment in the U.S.

Moreover, the U.S. economy has proven more resilient than expected since the start of Trump’s second term. In the third quarter of last year, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% compared to the previous quarter. Deregulation and investments in artificial intelligence (AI) have become additional pillars of growth. The inflation rate has remained below 3%, and did not spike as it did during the previous Joe Biden administration. For many economists who predicted inflation and recession and were critical of Trump, these results are unwelcome.

Of course, it is clear that during the Trump era, America's soft power-rooted in democracy, alliances, and value-based diplomacy-has weakened. His authoritarian style of governance and institutional erosion are difficult to justify. However, from the perspective of Americans, it is not easy to declare that Trump is entirely wrong. Plagued by fiscal and trade twin deficits, the U.S. is entering a phase where it can no longer maintain the existing order by issuing unlimited dollars. There is a growing assessment that astronomical government debt and excessive trade and security burdens are reaching the limits of what the reserve currency status can bear.

Perhaps Trump is the first explosive signal of Americans’ pent-up demand for change, manifested under the banner of 'America First.' The means and methods were extreme and controversial, but there remains a strong possibility that a second or third Trump, with a more moderate face, will emerge. The 'generous' America we once knew may no longer exist. Trump may not be an aberrant exception in U.S. politics. It is time to face the reality of a changed America and to develop a sober, long-term strategy for how to respond to this new America.