[New York Diary] One Year into Trump’s Second Term: If I Were a U.S. Citizen

"If I were a U.S. citizen, whom would I have voted for in the 2024 presidential election: Joe Biden or Donald Trump?"

This is a question I still often ask myself, even now, two years after coming to the United States. Having started my assignment as a correspondent in early 2024 to cover the presidential campaign and then witnessing the first year of Trump’s second term in 2025, it has become increasingly difficult to answer this question.

Trade policies under the banner of "America First," a crackdown on illegal immigration, a Ukraine war mediation stance favoring Russia, pressure on elite universities, undermining the independence of the central bank, and even judicial retaliation against political opponents-Trump has unapologetically pushed his agenda at an unprecedented pace, relying on the logic of power. Along the way, I have often found myself surprised by his authoritarian governing style and disregard for institutions, norms, and the rule of law. Yet, the answer often leads to an uncomfortable place: If I were a U.S. citizen, I might have ended up voting for Trump.

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Though two years may seem short, the reality I encountered on the ground in America was enough to provoke such internal debates. For example, the streets of Manhattan in New York are crowded with refugees and the homeless. By law, New York City is required to provide free shelters for all refugees. The astronomical costs of this policy are passed directly onto taxpayers. Other social issues are equally contentious. Gender-neutral restrooms are common throughout Manhattan, and there are many cases where women are not guaranteed the option to use female-only restrooms. It is also not uncommon to meet parents who feel uncomfortable that their fourth-grade children are already being taught that biological sex and gender identity can differ.

In this context, it is difficult to dismiss Trump’s first year in office as simply the result of irrationality, especially when faced with such tangible examples. Policies to block illegal immigration and accept only legal and necessary workers, principles to deport immigrants with criminal records, and measures to restrict transgender women from participating in women’s sports-all part of Trump’s ongoing campaign to eradicate so-called "woke" culture-can be seen by many voters not as radical regression, but as a restoration of "common sense."

The same applies to economic and trade policies. Streamlining the federal workforce for greater government efficiency, boosting growth through tax cuts and deregulation-these are viewed as rational solutions by conservative voters. Voters in the Rust Belt, who lost jobs and livelihoods due to the collapse of manufacturing, have little choice but to welcome Trump’s policies emphasizing tariffs and increased investment in the United States.

Moreover, the U.S. economy has proven more resilient than expected during Trump’s second term. In the third quarter of last year, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% compared to the previous quarter. Deregulation and investments in artificial intelligence (AI) have become additional drivers of growth. Inflation has remained below 3%, avoiding the sharp spikes seen during the previous Biden administration. These outcomes are unwelcome for many economists who had predicted inflation and recession under Trump and criticized his policies.

Of course, it is clear that during the Trump era, America’s soft power-built on international norms, multilateralism, and value-based diplomacy rooted in liberal democracy-has weakened. His authoritarian style, unilateralism, and divisive politics cannot be justified. However, from the perspective of Americans, it is not easy to say that Trump is entirely wrong. The United States, long plagued by fiscal and trade "twin deficits," is now entering a phase where it can no longer maintain the existing order by issuing unlimited dollars. There are growing assessments that the astronomical government debt and excessive trade and security burdens have reached the limits of what can be sustained by a reserve currency nation alone.

Perhaps Trump is the most explosive signal of Americans’ pent-up demands for change, erupting under the banner of America First. His methods and approach were extreme and controversial, but there remains a strong possibility that a second or third Trump-one with a more moderate face-could emerge. The "generous" America we once knew may no longer exist. Trump may not be an aberration in American politics. It is time to face the reality of a changed America and to seriously consider and strategize for how to respond to this new America in the medium and long term.