'Impact of Low Birth Rate': Fewer Than 300,000 First-Grade Elementary Students This Year...Projected to Drop to 230,000 by 2030

Due to the impact of the declining birth rate, the number of children entering elementary school this year is expected to fall below 300,000.

The playground of Hwayang Elementary School, which was closed in 2023, is partially being used as a parking lot and community space. 2025.04.16 Photo by Dongju Yoon

According to the "2025 Elementary, Middle, and High School Student Population Projection Adjustment Results (2026-2031)" recently released by the Ministry of Education on January 13, the total number of first-grade elementary school students nationwide this year is estimated to be 298,178.

This projection is based on data from the Korea Educational Development Institute’s Basic Education Statistics, the National Data Office’s future population estimates, and the Ministry of the Interior and Safety’s resident registration population statistics.

In its projection released in January last year, the Ministry of Education expected that the number of first-grade elementary students would drop below 300,000 in 2027. However, after reviewing various factors such as resident registration population and school enrollment rates, the ministry has moved this timeline forward by one year.

According to the Korea Educational Development Institute’s Education Statistics Service, the number of first-grade elementary students (as of April 1) fell below 700,000 in 2000, decreasing from 713,500 in 1999 to 699,032 in 2000, mainly due to the effects of the low birth rate.

After that, the number plummeted from 534,816 in 2008 to 468,233 in 2009, then hovered in the 400,000s before dropping sharply in recent years to 401,752 in 2023, 353,713 in 2024, and 324,040 last year.

Comparing the estimates for 2023 and this year, the number of students has decreased by 25.8% (103,574 students) in just three years.

Deoksu High School, which was closed last year, is being utilized as the Seoul Integrated Online School. 2025.04.26 Photo by Dongju Yoon

In this projection, the Ministry of Education expects the number of first-grade elementary students to continue declining, reaching 277,674 in 2027, 262,309 in 2028, 247,591 in 2029, 232,268 in 2030, and 220,481 in 2031.

The estimate for 2031 represents a decrease of about 32% compared to last year.

As a result of the student shortage, more elementary, middle, and high schools are closing, and some universities, particularly outside the greater Seoul area, are struggling to recruit new students.