[June 3 Local Election] ⑥ South Chungcheong Faces Complex Candidate Pool Amid Integration Variable... Kim Taeheum Leads Opposition

Barometer and Casting Vote in Elections
Center of Chungcheong Leadership and Great Expectation Theories
People Power Party: Governor Kim Taeheum as Strongest Contender
Democratic Party: Kang Hoon-sik’s Candidacy as a Key Variable

With President Lee Jaemyung expressing his determination to push forward, the possibility of administrative integration between Daejeon and South Chungcheong Province has increased, leading to increasingly complex calculations among potential candidates for the South Chungcheong governorship.

◇ Characteristics of the South Chungcheong Election = Historically, South Chungcheong has been considered the heart of the “Chungcheong leadership theory” and “Chungcheong great expectation theory,” as well as a barometer and casting vote region in past elections. Former Governor Shim Dae-pyung, a member of the Liberty Democratic Union led by former Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil-one of the “Three Kims”-was elected for three consecutive terms in the first to third local elections, heavily influenced by the Chungcheong leadership theory.

◇ Track Record = In the fourth local elections in 2006, when there was strong sentiment against the Roh Moo-hyun administration, former Governor Lee Wangu of the Grand National Party won with 46.31%. In the fifth local elections, amid criticism of the Lee Myung-bak administration, former Governor Ahn Hee-jung of the Democratic Party won with 42.25%. In the sixth local elections, Ahn was re-elected with 52.21%, having led a stable provincial administration. In the seventh local elections in 2018, former Governor Yang Seung-jo of the Democratic Party won with 62.55%. In the eighth local elections in 2022, held just after the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, Governor Kim Tae-heum of the People Power Party won with 53.87%, preventing Yang from serving a second term.

◇ Who Are the Potential Candidates? = If limited to the South Chungcheong governorship, Governor Kim is considered the strongest contender within the People Power Party. According to a public opinion poll conducted by Korea Research on behalf of KBS Daejeon Broadcasting on December 24, 26-27 last year among 800 residents of South Chungcheong, 51% gave a positive evaluation of Governor Kim’s administration (12% “very well,” 39% “generally well”). While the party’s approval rating remains in the 20% range, the evaluation of the provincial administration is relatively stable.

For the Democratic Party, not only local politicians but also figures active in central politics are increasingly likely to run. The pool of candidates includes former Governor Yang Seung-jo and Park Jeong-hyeon, Mayor of Buyeo, both of whom have strengthened their activities in the region, as well as Park Soo-hyun (Gongju) and Bok Gi-wang (Asan Gap), who defeated People Power Party candidates in the 22nd general election.

◇ Variables in the South Chungcheong Governor Election = The biggest variable is whether Chief Presidential Secretary Kang Hoon-sik, who has been elected three consecutive times in Asan-eul, will run. On January 5, Kang stated on CBS Radio, “I haven’t considered running,” drawing a line, but if he runs as the Democratic Party candidate, it is expected to shake up the race. In the Korea Research poll commissioned by KBS Daejeon Broadcasting on suitability for the next South Chungcheong governor, Governor Kim led with 21%, followed by Chief Secretary Kang at 17%, former Governor Yang at 12%, Assemblyman Park at 4%, Assemblyman Bok at 3%, and Mayor Park at 1%.

<Public Opinion Poll>

- Korea Research (commissioned by KBS Daejeon Broadcasting, 800 men and women aged 18 and over residing in South Chungcheong, December 24, 26-27 last year, telephone interviews conducted by interviewers, 95% confidence level, margin of error ±3.5 percentage points). For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.