Did Midterm Election Pressure Play a Role? US House Republicans Pass 'Obamacare' Extension Bill

Insurance Premiums Double in the New Year
"Cost of Living" Emerges as Key Midterm Election Issue
Republican Leadership Opposes ACA Extension
Seventeen Republican House Members from Swing Districts Break Ranks

United States Capitol, Washington DC, United States

In the United States House of Representatives, Republican lawmakers joined Democrats to pass an extension of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), commonly known as "Obamacare." Some interpret this move-Republicans defying their party leadership's opposition to support the bill-as a response to the upcoming midterm elections in November.

According to the Washington Post on January 8 (local time), the House passed the bill with 230 votes in favor and 196 against. Of the 435 total seats in the House, Republicans hold a narrow majority with 218 seats, compared to the Democrats' 213. Seventeen moderate Republicans switched their stance to support the extension, enabling the bill's passage.

Initially, the ACA extension bill was considered unlikely to pass, as Republican leadership had expressed opposition. The fact that some Republican lawmakers in the House changed their position has led to speculation that the party leadership's authority is weakening.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government has provided subsidies to ACA enrollees. The issue of extending ACA subsidies became so contentious last year-when Republicans and Democrats failed to reach an agreement-that it led to the longest federal government shutdown in history. Ultimately, the ACA subsidy extension expired automatically.

According to the nonprofit health research organization KFF, the failure to extend the subsidies is expected to raise the average insurance premium for ACA enrollees by 114%. As a result, as of January 3, the number of ACA enrollees stood at 15.6 million, down by about 1 million from 16.7 million during the same period last year. The Washington Post explained that many enrollees canceled their coverage due to the sharp increase in premiums following the end of the subsidies.

Most of the Republican lawmakers who supported the ACA subsidy extension bill represent swing districts where they compete closely with Democrats. With "cost of living" emerging as the biggest issue ahead of the November midterm elections, some Republicans appear to have defied party leadership in response to voter concerns.

However, it remains uncertain whether the ACA subsidy extension bill will ultimately pass. The Senate previously rejected a similar ACA extension proposal.

Subsequently, Democrats initiated a "discharge petition" to bring the bill to a vote in the House without review by a standing committee. This procedure allowed the ACA extension bill to be put to a vote, as four Republican House members supported the petition.