U.S. Invasion of Venezuela Backfiring? ... "Kim Jong Un May Lower Nuclear Threshold"

There is analysis suggesting that the United States' decapitation operation, "Operation Assured Resolve (OAR)," which involved the capture and extradition of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, is unlikely to pose a threat to North Korea or Chairman Kim Jong Un. In fact, some observers predict that it may lower Kim's threshold for nuclear use.

On January 8, Lee Geunwook, a professor at Sogang University, stated during a forum titled "The Venezuelan Crisis and the Future of Kim Jong Un," co-hosted at the National Assembly by Assemblymen Kim Gun and Yoo Yongwon of the People Power Party, "Like Iraq in 2003, North Korea would prefer a situation where the United States is preoccupied with occupying Venezuela and cannot focus on the Korean Peninsula."

Regarding the impact of this invasion on the situation in East Asia, including China, Professor Lee commented, "This attack has provided China with a justification to protect North Korea and an excuse to pressure the withdrawal of U.S. military forces stationed in East Asia, including U.S. Forces Korea. Since 2001, the United States has been entangled in two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq while waging the War on Terror, allowing China to rise unchecked. We are likely to see a similar situation this time as well."

There are also concerns that this operation, which selectively eliminated a hostile leader, could result in lowering the nuclear threshold for countries possessing nuclear weapons, such as North Korea. Professor Lee stated, "If Chairman Kim perceives a threat to his safety, he will prepare measures to use nuclear weapons and use this as a deterrent to prevent the United States from abducting or capturing him. This could involve delivering nuclear launch codes with a very simple message to a small group."

Song Seungjong, a distinguished professor of military studies at Daejeon University, remarked, "The demonstration of the United States' capability to eliminate leaders could serve as a catalyst that makes nuclear use decisions faster and more automatic. While this may be a tactical success for the United States, it could create strategic instability for South Korea."

Meanwhile, according to military sources, North Korea is reportedly preparing a large-scale military parade involving about 15,000 participants ahead of the 9th Workers' Party Congress early this year. This is seen as an attempt to showcase the achievements of the five-year plan for economic development and strengthening national defense, which Chairman Kim presented at the 8th Party Congress in 2021 and is now concluding. The Joint Chiefs of Staff stated, "Our military is closely monitoring the North Korean military's preparations for the parade."