[How About This Book] Will a Declining Population Let Us See Blue Skies More Often?

Systematic Explanation of Causes, Prediction Methods,
and Expected Consequences of Population Decline
Global Population Projected to Peak at 10 Billion,
Then Drop to 2 Billion Within 300 Years
Authors Refute Claims That Population Decline
Is Beneficial for the Environment,
Citing Severe Air Pollution in Low-Density Niger
Skepticism Toward Government-Led Population Control
Both China's One-Child Policy and Romania's Abortion Ban Ended in Failure

Humanity has entered an era of 'great population decline.' The trend of each generation being smaller than the previous one has become entrenched, but it is still unclear exactly what and how humanity will lose as a result. Hopes that population decline will have a positive effect on solving environmental problems such as climate change have also failed to gain sufficient credibility. The authors, professors of economics at the University of Texas at Austin, assert that population decline will not serve to elevate the standard of living for humanity. On the contrary, they warn that proactively diagnosing and responding to the damages caused by population decline will become a core challenge for humankind.

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This book systematically explains the causes of the great population decline, the methods for predicting it, and the resulting consequences. The most likely scenario presented by the authors is that the global population will peak at around 10 billion within the next few decades and then begin to decline. In this case, they analyze that the global population could fall below 2 billion within about 300 years. The authors are also skeptical of the claim that population decline will be beneficial for the Earth's environment. This is because population size and environmental burden do not simply increase in proportion to each other.

The case of China illustrates this well. In 2013, China experienced a severe smog crisis that far exceeded measurement standards. Over the following ten years, China's population increased by about 50 million, yet fine dust concentrations actually dropped to half their previous levels. The authors explain that this phenomenon has been repeatedly observed in other countries as well. For example, Singapore, which has the highest population density in the world, has low air pollution, while Niger, with low population density, is classified as a country with severe air pollution. The analysis suggests that the presence of coal-fired power plants, as well as the level and application of technology, have a much greater impact on air pollution than population density does.

The book repeatedly emphasizes that government-led population control has not proven effective. National birth policies have been artificially implemented according to social and economic needs, but successful cases are rare in history. In the 1980s, China actively permitted abortion as part of its birth control policy, while Romania, which needed to secure more labor, made abortion illegal and enforced strict crackdowns. However, both countries failed to control their populations, and both faced severe moral criticism for the problems that arose during the policy process.

The excessive cost of raising children is also cited as a major reason for declining birth rates. As a result, governments around the world have expanded policies for childbirth and childcare subsidies, but the prevailing assessment is that their effects are limited. Sweden's total fertility rate fell from 1.76 in 2018 to 1.70 in 2019. In Korea, various local governments provide childbirth incentives, but while these may encourage families to have children earlier, they are insufficient to change the minds of families who do not intend to have children at all.

It has also been confirmed that countries and families with higher income levels tend to have lower birth rates. Although absolute living conditions have improved, it has become more difficult to feel that one has 'enough' by relative standards. The authors analyze, "The wealthier a society is, the more conditions are required for people to feel that they have enough," and "In societies where standards of living are continuously rising, the role of parenthood is becoming an increasingly difficult task."

There are cases where government childcare policies, such as expanding paternity leave, have led to a temporary rebound in birth rates, but experts evaluate these as short-term effects. The book introduces examples from Austria, which doubled its paid parental leave in the 1990s, as well as from Germany, Sweden, and the state of California in the United States. None of these regions succeeded in raising the birth rate to the replacement level of two children per woman. In Sweden, after the introduction of paternity leave, there was even a reported decline in men's intentions to have children. Generous subsidy policies at Canadian public universities and Israel's free in vitro fertilization policy also failed to achieve the expected results.

Demographers point out that while policy changes can have some effect on advancing the timing of childbirth, they do not affect the total number of children a woman has over her lifetime. To prevent a great population decline, it is the 'total number' of births, not the 'timing,' that matters.

The authors also refute the claim that the spread of feminism is the cause of falling birth rates, citing the case of Korea. Korea records the world's lowest birth rate, but cannot be considered a country with a high level of gender equality. Korea has the largest gender pay gap among OECD countries, and its society as a whole still maintains a traditional and conservative structure.

The authors define low birth rates and population decline as a global change that cannot be explained by a single cause. They argue that the solution should focus not on population growth, but on 'population stabilization.' They suggest, "To avoid a great population decline, a fundamental change is needed in the way we care for one another," and "Societal improvements are required to expand the areas in life where people can aspire and feel a sense of achievement." This book answers the 'why' behind low birth rates while also encouraging readers to consider the 'how' together.

Population Never Lies | Dean Spears et al. | Woongjin Knowledge House | 404 pages | 22,000 won