Over $10 Million at Stake: "Maduro's Capture Is Not an Invasion," Says Polymarket

User Backlash Grows Over Polymarket's Definition of "Invasion"
Controversy Erupts Over $15.5 Million in Bets and Payout Decisions

The U.S. betting platform Polymarket is facing controversy after refusing to pay out winnings on bets regarding the U.S. military’s operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, stating that the operation cannot be considered an "invasion."

On the 3rd (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump posted recent photos of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who was captured by U.S. troops in a surprise military operation, on the social networking service Truth Social. Truth Social

According to major foreign media outlets on January 7 (local time), Polymarket has sparked backlash among participants by declaring that the U.S. military’s operation to capture President Maduro does not constitute an invasion and therefore the related betting contracts would not be settled. Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform where users place "Yes" or "No" bets on the outcomes of various events in politics, economics, and international affairs.

Polymarket determined that the U.S. special operations mission to capture and extradite President Maduro overseas, which took place at around 1 a.m. on January 3 (Eastern Time), did not meet the definition of "invade."

On its website, Polymarket clarified that for the bet "When will the United States invade Venezuela?", a military attack by the United States must be launched with the goal of securing control over at least part of Venezuelan territory in order to be recognized as an "invasion" and for bets to be settled. The company added, "The basis for the ruling follows a consensus of credible sources."

As of the afternoon of that day, more than $10.7 million was wagered on this bet, according to the Polymarket website. Of this, over $6.09 million was bet on the prediction that "the United States will invade Venezuela by January 31," about $1.87 million on "invasion by March 31," and more than $60,000 on "invasion by December 31."

Some users have expressed strong dissatisfaction with Polymarket’s decision. One user criticized, "Polymarket is reaching the height of arbitrary judgment," and argued, "Claiming that the abduction of a head of state, military incursion, and regime takeover do not constitute an invasion is clearly absurd."

Previously, Polymarket was also embroiled in allegations of insider trading. An anonymous trader was identified as having correctly predicted the timing of President Maduro’s capture, earning about $400,000 in profit. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on January 5, this account placed concentrated bets on several Venezuela-related contracts just before the operation. The account was newly created on December 26 of the previous year, and the fact that it made a large profit in a short period of time raised suspicions of possible insider trading.

In response, U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres has introduced a bill to prohibit prediction market trading based on the use of insider information.