[2026 Outlook] "Supply Cliff to Peak This Year"... Both Jeonse and Sales Prices Will Rise [Real Estate AtoZ]

100% of Experts Predict Jeonse Price Increase... 72% Say "Rate of Increase Will Widen"
Top Cause of Jeonse Instability: "Accumulated Shortage of Available Units"
91.7% Forecast Sales Price Rise... "Jeonse and Sales Prices Rising Together"
Supply

Experts predict that this year will see an unprecedented supply cliff, leading to a 'jeonse crisis.' The cumulative decline in housing permits and construction starts over the past several years is expected to peak this year, further exacerbating housing insecurity for ordinary citizens. As available homes disappear, more people are likely to decide they would rather buy a home, which is expected to drive up sales prices as well.

According to a survey conducted by The Asia Business Daily on January 12 with 36 experts from academia, research institutes, construction companies, and the financial sector, the experts agreed that the supply cliff will be the definitive keyword determining the direction of the 2026 real estate market. They diagnosed that, more than interest rates or regulations, the immediate lack of available homes is the decisive factor shaping the fate of the market.

The most precarious area is the jeonse market. All respondents (100%) predicted a nationwide rise in jeonse prices, with 72.2% (26 people) stating that the increase would be greater than last year, warning of an unprecedented jeonse crisis. As for the cause of instability in the jeonse supply, 54.1% (20 people) pointed to the cumulative shortage of available new homes. With strong lending regulations suppressing buying sentiment, potential buyers unable to purchase homes are remaining in the jeonse market, while the sharp decline in new housing supply is pushing the supply-demand imbalance to its worst point.

The fire in the jeonse market is expected to spread to the sales market. Out of the 36 experts surveyed, 33 (91.7%) predicted an increase in home sales prices this year. As jeonse prices surge, genuine homebuyers are turning to purchase, reinforcing the nationwide upward trend.

The impact of supply shortages on market prices was rated at an overwhelming average of 4.11 out of 5 points. In contrast, the government's contribution to market stabilization was rated at an average of just 2.3 points, effectively a failing grade. Accordingly, 86.1% of the experts (31 people) strongly called for 'expanding supply in Seoul and the metropolitan area' as the top priority for market stabilization. They concluded that without a proper supply schedule, it will be difficult to prevent the vicious cycle where the jeonse crisis pushes up sales prices.