[June 3 Local Elections]④‘Tight Incheon’ Without Consecutive Wins Since 2010...Emerges as the Biggest Battleground

A Region Without Party Bias
Mirrors Overall Local Election Trends
Park Namchun Eyes Second Term for the Ruling Party
Jeong Ilyoung, Kim Kyoheung, Maeng Sungkyu, Yoo Dongsoo
Also Considered as Potential Candidates
Park Chandae's Candidacy Re

Since 2010, Incheon has been the only region without consecutive wins for either the progressive or conservative parties. As a metropolitan city adjacent to Seoul and the only one among the six major metropolitan cities with a growing population, Incheon is considered a swing voter region, reflecting overall election trends without a strong bias toward any particular party.

◇ Historical Results = From the 1st to the 8th directly elected mayoral terms, conservatives have held the Incheon mayoral seat five times, while progressives have held it three times. In the first direct election in 1995, former Governor Choi Ki-sun, running as the Democratic Liberal Party candidate, was elected with a vote share of 40.81%. Choi later joined the United Liberal Democrats and was re-elected in the second term with 53.49%. In the third and fourth local elections, Ahn Sang-soo of the Grand National Party won consecutive victories with 56.17% and 61.93%, respectively.

However, since the fifth local election in 2010, no political camp has been able to secure consecutive terms. Song Young-gil, a three-term lawmaker from the United Democratic Party (representing Gyeyang-gu B in Incheon), who had criticized Incheon's fiscal issues, was elected as the fifth mayor. In the sixth local election in 2014, Yoo Jeong-bok, who had served as the Minister of Security and Public Administration under the Park Geun-hye administration, narrowly won with 49.95%. In the seventh local election in 2018, during the second year of the Moon Jae-in administration, controversy over the phrase "Ibumaengcheon" (meaning 'if you get divorced, you go to Bucheon; if you fail, you go to Incheon') spread, leading the Democratic Party to victory. Park Nam-chun, a former Senior Secretary for Personnel Affairs in the Roh Moo-hyun administration, was elected with 57.66%. Conversely, in the eighth local election in 2022, held shortly after the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, Mayor Yoo reclaimed victory with 51.76%.

◇ Who Are the Potential Candidates? = The Democratic Party, aiming to retake the Incheon mayoral seat, is preparing for former Mayor Park Nam-chun to run for a second term. Jeong Il-young, a lawmaker who previously served as CEO of Incheon International Airport Corporation (Yeonsu-gu B), has also announced his intention to run. Other prominent lawmakers representing Incheon, such as three-term lawmakers Kim Kyo-heung (Seo-gu A), Maeng Sung-kyu (Namdong-gu A), and Yoo Dong-soo (Gyeyang-gu A), are also considered potential candidates. The biggest variable is whether Park Chan-dae (Yeonsu-gu A), a former Democratic Party floor leader and considered a dark horse, will enter the race. If Park Chan-dae runs, the Democratic Party's primary dynamics are expected to change. For the People Power Party, the potential candidates include Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok, Lee Hak-jae, CEO of Incheon International Airport Corporation, five-term lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun (Dong-gu and Michuhol-gu B), and two-term lawmaker Bae Jun-young (Jung-gu, Ganghwa-gun, Ongjin-gun).

◇ Polling Trends = According to a compilation of opinion polls conducted over the past three months (Incheon Ilbo, Hangil Research, News Tomato, Media Tomato), Park Chan-dae leads among the ruling party candidates, while Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok leads among the opposition. Hangil Research found support within the Democratic Party as follows: Park Chan-dae 29.3%, former Mayor Park Nam-chun 8.3%, lawmaker Yoo Dong-soo 3.6%, and lawmaker Kim Kyo-heung 3.5%. For the People Power Party, Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok had 29.6%, lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun 10.0%, lawmaker Bae Jun-young 5.5%, and former CEO Lee Hak-jae 5.1%. In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Democratic Party candidates were found to be ahead of People Power Party candidates by a margin within or near the margin of error. According to Media Tomato, Park Chan-dae (52.1%) led Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok (36.8%) by 15.3 percentage points.

◇ Characteristics of the Incheon Election = The Incheon mayoral election, closely tied to Seoul, tends to be heavily influenced by national political trends. In the past four elections, no single political camp has been allowed consecutive terms. Considering that the upcoming local election will be held one year after the impeachment of former President Yoon and the election of President Lee Jaemyung, as well as recent polling trends, some analysts suggest the Democratic Party has an advantage. However, given that Incheon residents are sensitive to issues such as fiscal independence, the gap between old and new urban areas, economic revitalization, transportation, and welfare, there is also an opinion that if a heavyweight candidate emerges, the People Power Party could be competitive.

<Opinion Polls>

- Hangil Research (commissioned by Incheon Ilbo, surveyed 800 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Incheon from October 17 to 19 last year, wireless ARS 90.8%, random digit dialing (RDD) ARS for landlines, margin of error of 3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level).

- Media Tomato (commissioned by News Tomato, surveyed 1,002 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Incheon from December 20 to 21 last year, wireless ARS, margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.