[2026 K-Art]Recovery Still Distant... Art Market Faces Test of Qualitative Transformation

A Time for Selection, Not Rebound: Changing Standards in the Art Market
Discernment and Strategy Outweigh Transaction Volume

As both domestic and international art markets continue to undergo a period of adjustment without a clear rebound, 2026 is expected to be less of a turning point between growth and stagnation, and more of a year in which the market’s structure and direction are put to the test. In an environment where the criteria for selection are becoming more important than the scale of transactions, and discernment is valued over expansion, analysts note that the art market is entering a phase where uncertainty and selective strength coexist.

The view of Frieze Seoul 2025, which opened on September 3rd last year at COEX in Samseong-dong, Seoul. Photo by Seomideum

According to the "2025 Korea Art Market Review and 2026 Outlook" report released by the Arts Management Support Center on January 7, a survey of 154 gallery and art fair professionals in Korea found that 56.1% of respondents believed the market would remain largely unchanged this year. Another 27.1% expected a decline in sales, indicating that caution prevails over optimism across the market. The domestic auction market is also showing only limited signs of recovery, mainly centered on a few high-priced works, as the number of successful bids continues to decrease. This has made polarization by price range even more pronounced.

The trend of structural change is also continuing in the global market. Major art market research institutions point to the growing influence of Millennial and Gen Z collectors as a key variable heading into 2026. These collectors are more accustomed to digital platforms and online transactions than to traditional, offline-centered collecting, and they display different perspectives and purchasing criteria compared to previous generations. Such changes are likely to reshape both the composition of market participants and the overall methods of transaction.

On the international stage, efforts to expand the market are also emerging. Art Basel, recognized as the world’s largest art fair, has confirmed plans to hold its first event in Doha, Qatar in 2026, aiming to establish the Middle East as a new hub. This move is an attempt to discover new demand outside of traditional art market centers and aligns with the broader trend of global network restructuring.

Experts view 2026 not simply as the first year of recovery, but rather as a period to assess the "quality" of the market. Verification of the completeness, provenance, and context of artworks is becoming increasingly important, surpassing the mere expansion of transaction volumes. This shift demands more strategic choices from collectors, galleries, and auction houses alike. Overseas market reports also note that, despite an overall downturn in 2025, selective transactions based on trust continued, especially in the mid-tier market. This suggests that expertise, discernment, and a long-term perspective will become even more critical in the art market moving forward.

Global statistics support this trend. According to the "Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report 2025," while global art market sales declined in 2024, the number of transactions actually increased. As the ultra-high-end segment contracted, trading became more active in the mid- and lower-priced segments, shifting the market’s center of gravity. Artnet’s auction market report also showed that auction sales for the first half of 2025 fell by about 8.8% year-on-year, with the average winning bid dropping to its lowest level in the past decade. However, the underperformance was mainly in the ultra-high-end segment, while transactions in the under $1 million and $1 million to $10 million ranges remained relatively stable.

Given these trends, the auction market in 2026 is likely to see "selective strength" continue. Demand for works with rarity, historical significance, and clear provenance is expected to persist, while speculative trading for short-term gains and excessive competition for high-priced pieces will likely be limited. The domestic market is expected to follow the global trend, though its recovery may be slower. Some gallery insiders assessed that sales in 2025 declined compared to the previous year, and the majority believe that maintaining the current level in 2026 is the most likely scenario.

Ultimately, in 2026, the art market is more likely to be defined by structural transformation and reorganization than by a simple economic rebound. The decrease in blue-chip transactions and the expansion of mid- and lower-priced deals signal both a contraction and a shift toward greater diversity and accessibility. Rather than short-term figures, the judgment, strategy, and adaptability of market participants are expected to determine the future direction of the art market.

Kim Sanghun, President of the Korean Society of Arts Management and professor at Seoul National University, said, "Since the art market is greatly affected by economic conditions, it is necessary to approach it with caution." He added, "With positive developments such as the extension of Frieze and Kiaf, this could be an opportunity to seek new momentum." He further noted, "As the auction and stock markets gradually recover, there may also be a move to seek alternative investment options."

Joo Yeonhwa, professor at the Graduate School of Culture and Arts Management at Hongik University, stated, "After a prolonged period of adjustment and recession, there is now a deeper understanding of the structure and value of the market rather than speculation." She predicted, "With a new influx of collectors in their 30s and 40s, there is potential for qualitative growth and a healthier market transformation."