"China Likely to Adopt Wait-and-See Strategy on Venezuela Crisis"

More to Lose Than Gain by Challenging Trump
Possible U.S. Condemnation at the Security Council
Highlighting China as a "Responsible Nation" on the Multilateral Stage

With the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro following US military intervention in Venezuela, the political landscape in Latin America is experiencing significant upheaval. Analysts suggest that China is likely to avoid direct confrontation and instead adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach.

On the 4th (local time), citizens at a shopping mall in Beijing, China, watched a large electronic billboard reporting on the US airstrike in Venezuela along with news that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife had been arrested. Photo by AP Yonhap News

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on January 5, based on the opinions of experts, that Beijing is expected to exercise patience and prepare for a long-term strategy amid the new geopolitical dynamics.

Bonnie Glaser, Vice President at the German Marshall Fund, stated, "Beijing will criticize the US action, but is unlikely to go further. Venezuela does not represent a core interest for China, and taking actions that could complicate President Donald Trump's plans would likely result in more losses than gains."

Experts view China's strategy as rational, given the high degree of uncertainty surrounding Venezuela's future power structure, the extent of US involvement in governance, the form of the future government, and the role of the opposition. In this context, any hasty move by China could only increase its risks.

Analysts also believe that China may push for a resolution condemning the US at the United Nations Security Council. SCMP interpreted this as consistent with China's existing strategy of positioning itself as a "responsible nation" on the multilateral stage.

Vice President Glaser noted that China may use this situation to contrast itself with the US as a "rogue actor," adding, "China will seek to highlight itself as a law-abiding nation that does not use military force or intervene in the internal affairs of other countries."

There are also suggestions that efforts to leverage the anxiety of some Latin American countries, such as Brazil, to fuel anti-Trump sentiment have their limits. Jeremy Chan, Senior Analyst at Eurasia Group, commented, "There is little likelihood of substantial international cooperation being formed."

Some experts believe that if a new Venezuelan regime is established, China could actually benefit from a more stable environment. Rafael Chi of Signum Global Partners said, "If a transaction-oriented and relatively US-friendly administration under Delcy Rodriguez comes to power, the risk of disruptions to oil supplies will be lower than during the period when targeted attacks on oil tankers were frequent."

It was also pointed out that China has already significantly reduced its involvement in Venezuela in recent years. Amid economic recession and weakening oil production, which have diminished the regime's domestic popularity, Venezuela has not been a politically or strategically attractive target for Chinese intervention.

Some observers view the current situation as a clear demonstration of President Trump's Latin America strategy. In his national security strategy released last year, President Trump introduced the so-called "Trump corollary," a modern expansion of the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. By updating this doctrine, President Trump called on global powers to recognize the Americas as within the US sphere of influence, while also signaling a retreat from the US role as "the world's policeman." According to SCMP, this suggests that China may have greater room to exert influence in East Asia, and that Europe, and in some cases Russia, could also find more opportunities to expand their influence in Europe.