[2026 K-pop] K-pop After the 100 Million Album Bubble... A New Golden Era With 'K-DNA'

Return of Third Generation Icons Like BTS and BLACKPINK... New Records Expected
Korean Talent Development System Transplanted... Era of 'K-Standard'
Superfan-Driven Shift in Consumption: Concerts and Merchandise Take Center Stage

BTS. Provided by Big Hit Music

Over the past decade, K-pop has risen from the periphery to the mainstream of the global music market. As of the New Year 2026, it stands at a critical crossroads. The growth formula centered on external expansion has reached its limits. With global music analysis institutions such as Luminate in the United States pointing out the slowdown in K-pop’s growth and calling for structural improvements, the industry is now seeking solutions through 'qualitative growth' by globally transplanting its production systems.

◆ The Era of 100 Million Albums Ends... Shift to 'Value Consumption' = For the first time in nine years, the physical album market has contracted, marking the end of the era of 100 million albums. According to the Circle Chart from the Korea Music Content Association on January 5, 2024, physical album sales stood at about 98.9 million, a 17.7% decrease from the previous year. The decline was especially pronounced among girl groups, with sales dropping by approximately 5.3 million units.

Music data journalist Kim Jinwoo analyzed, "Last year’s album sales will be similar to or slightly below the previous year, hovering around 90 million units," adding, "This is a sign that not only is there a lack of competition among the top 10, but the overall vibrancy of the music market is waning." This indicates that mass purchasing and first-week sales competitions have reached their limits.

While sales volume declined, export value actually increased. According to the Korea Customs Service, last year’s album exports reached 291.8 million dollars (about 421 billion won), up from 290.23 million dollars the previous year. This is the result of fans moving away from bulk purchases for chart rankings and instead spending on high-value items with collectible appeal, such as LPs and limited-edition merchandise, reflecting a shift toward value consumption.

This change is also spreading to 'experiential consumption' such as concerts. Despite ticket price hikes last year, world tours by Stray Kids, G-Dragon, and BLACKPINK all sold out. The industry expects the concert market to surpass a record 1 trillion won this year, and is accelerating the development of high-value-added products such as VIP packages, sound checks, and concert merchandise.

Goldman Sachs predicted, "The future music market will be driven not by simple album sales, but by monetizing 'superfans'." This is why major agencies like HYBE, SM, and JYP are rushing to introduce the 'Fan to Fan' model, which allows fans to directly create and trade secondary works through platforms like Weverse and Bubble. The industry is now fully transitioning from an era of 'selling a lot' to 'selling at a higher price, for longer'.

◆ BTS, BLACKPINK, BIGBANG... The Return of 'Third Generation Legends' = In the new year, the flagship stars who led K-pop’s global golden age are making their comeback. The biggest topic is BTS. With all members having completed their military service, they will release a new album and embark on a large-scale world tour on March 20. This marks their first full-group activity in four years since the anthology album 'Proof' in 2022. Hwang Ji-won, a researcher at iM Securities, projected, "The BTS world tour will attract between 3.5 and 4 million attendees."

BLACKPINK will also resume full-group activities in the first half of the year. Member Ros? has heightened expectations for K-pop’s first-ever Grammy win, being nominated in three categories at next month’s Grammy Awards with her global hit 'APT.'. EXO’s return with their 8th studio album 'REVERXE' and BIGBANG’s comeback for their 20th anniversary are also expected to energize the market.

◆ 'K-less K-pop' Becomes Mainstream Globally... Risk Management Is a Challenge = "K-pop is no longer a genre, but a system." This assertion by Lee Soo-man, former chief producer of SM, has become central to this year’s market strategy. HYBE, JYP, and others are actively debuting localized groups by recruiting and training talent in the United States, Japan, and Latin America.

HYBE Latin boy group Santos Bravos '0%' music video. Provided by HYBE Latin America

The strategy is to move away from an album export-centered structure and increase the share of revenue from overseas subsidiaries’ royalties and intellectual property (IP). British music media outlet NME commented, "Korean agencies are evolving beyond 'music labels' to become 'talent incubating tech companies'," adding, "2026 will be the year when K-pop production know-how becomes the global standard."

However, risk management has emerged as an essential challenge. As the industry grows, artists’ moral hazards and agencies’ crisis response capabilities are immediately reflected in stock prices as 'investment criteria.' In particular, how quickly and ethically entertainment companies respond to new risks such as copyright disputes arising from artificial intelligence (AI) and deepfake sex crimes will be crucial to preventing fanbase attrition.