[Interview] Professor Cheolhee Lee: "A Society That Protects Its Children and Youth Is Just as Important as Promoting Childbirth"

Professor Cheolhee Lee Publishes "From Population to Human"
Rebound in Marriage and Birth Indicators Likely Temporary
Decline in Births Analyzed as a Matter of Choice

Cheolhee Lee, Professor of Economics at Seoul National University, who warned of the social and economic imbalances that demographic changes would bring to Korean society through his 2024 book "The Disappearance of Workers," once again addresses the issue of low birth rates head-on in his new book "From Population to Human." This latest work focuses on analyzing the decline in births not simply as a matter of numbers, but as a problem rooted in structural causes and individual choices.

Professor Cheolhee Lee of the Department of Economics at Seoul National University, author of the book "From Population to Human." Provided by the author

The core analysis presented by Professor Lee is a comparison of the causes behind declining fertility rates. He divides the factors influencing the drop in fertility into a decrease in marriages and a decrease in the birth rate among married couples, noting that in Korea the former is decisive, while in Western countries the latter plays a larger role. He interprets Korea’s long-term decline in fertility not as a result of people having fewer children, but rather because fewer people are getting married in the first place.

In an interview with The Asia Business Daily, Professor Lee stated, "Korea is still a society where children are typically born after marriage," adding, "Although births outside of marriage are increasing, the majority of children are still born to married couples." In fact, the marriage rate among women aged 25-29 was around 85% in the early 1990s but has now fallen below 40%. He explained, "A rigorous analysis shows that about three-quarters of the decline in births from 1992 to 2023 is due to fewer marriages."

Is low birth rate necessarily a negative phenomenon? Jared Diamond, author of "Guns, Germs, and Steel," remarked during his 2019 visit to Korea that "a declining population also reduces the burden of importing resources needed to support it, so it is not exclusively negative." Professor Lee partially agrees, but points out that it is problematic when people who wish to marry and have children are unable to do so due to social barriers. He warned, "A sharp decline in births accelerates demographic changes, exacerbates social and economic imbalances, and ultimately diminishes quality of life." He stressed that low birth rates resulting from voluntary choices must be distinguished from those caused by an environment that leaves people with no options.

Professor Lee also expressed caution regarding the recent slight rebound in marriage and birth indicators. Regarding the view that policy measures such as expanded parental leave are responsible, he stated, "There is no clear evidence for this." Instead, he attributes the increase in births to a backlog of marriages postponed during the COVID-19 pandemic, which occurred all at once after 2021. While there may have been some impact from strengthened childcare support, he assesses the effect as limited. Excluding these temporary factors, the outlook remains bleak. He noted, "Preferences for happiness derived from life with children have declined significantly," and predicted, "Unless this structure changes, the rebound will not last." He is also skeptical about the effectiveness of increased out-of-wedlock births in raising the overall fertility rate, although he acknowledges its significance in terms of individual choice and human rights.

Professor Lee emphasizes "expanding freedom of choice" and "maintaining quality of life" as the goals of population policy. He argues that it is just as important to become a society that protects children and young people who have already been born as it is to encourage childbirth. He stated, "Creating a society where the decreasing number of children and young people are valued is the way to mitigate low birth rates and prepare for an era of demographic change."